Why each stock is priced where it is, and what would have to be true for that price to be right. One chart per step, read aloud if you would rather listen. Newest first.
Growth is speeding up again, yet the price assumes the boom cools.
Sales are up by half and the orders keep coming. The argument is how much of each AI server Dell gets to keep, and when the cash shows up.
Sales grow 10% again on two newer drugs, and the stock costs more per dollar of sales and cash than at any time in ten years
Expensive on last year's earnings, cheap on next year's, and the gap is the oil price
Reported profits fell by two thirds and the stock rose by nearly half
Growth pulled the PE down from 695 to about 166. The price still needs years more of it.
A normal multiple of earnings, a rare one of cash, and a bet that the build-out pays
Mastercard is growing faster than in 2024, while a travel slump and a swipe-fee bill keep its PE well below its usual level
Most of the return came from the re-rating, not the earnings
Ten times sales for a business whose revenue has started growing again
Price to book sits at its ten-year median while a new CEO starts spending the cash
A trillion dollars at about 57 times forward earnings, just as its biggest GPU ramp starts to ship
About 20% off its May peak, Walmart still trades above its own history and its peers
Revenue growth picked up to 14%, while a swipe-fee bill and a debit antitrust suit hang over a multiple below its ten-year median
Record profits at 6 times the next twelve months' earnings, and contracts that say this time is different
Earnings keep rising while free cash flow falls. The gap is the AI build-out, and today's price assumes it pays off.
A stock that doubled while its PE fell by more than two thirds
Earnings at a record, the multiple near a ten year low
Reported earnings more than doubled in a year, mostly on investment gains. On expected earnings it trades near its usual multiple.
What a de-rating looks like on a good business
Cheap on next year's earnings and costly on today's sales. The gap closes only if revenue nearly triples again.
Margins arrived. Now the cash is going to data centers.
Record margins and a multiple near its ten year high, just as growth is expected to slow
At 112 times the coming year's consensus earnings, only Starlink makes money and spending runs far ahead of cash.
J&J outran Stelara's collapse and settled talc, and the price nearly doubled to pay for it
Ideas tested against what prices already assume, across the companies they touch.
Each answer costs less every year, and buyers spend more in total. Seats and hours are priced for the loss. The chip and memory makers are priced as if the spending ends.
New products pull in deposits at several times Schwab's rate. HOOD's price assumes that pace lasts for years, while Schwab is priced as if it loses, and its numbers do not show it losing yet.
Coding already has a loser, priced like one. The biology names rose on a spending recovery, and the trial runner AI could shrink trades at its median.
Consultants and software makers trade near ten-year lows while their revenue still grows. The open question is who keeps the savings.
Superworth