SuperworthRobinhood's product keeps winning wallets, and the price already counts on it
New products pull in deposits at several times Schwab's rate. HOOD's price assumes that pace lasts for years, while Schwab is priced as if it loses, and its numbers do not show it losing yet.
A thesis by Superworth
Helped
- HOODThe product machine. Fwd PE 48.0 against a median of 35.3, with net deposits of 24% of assets over twelve months.
- IBKRThe other fast gatherer. Accounts up 35% to 5.46M. Fwd PE 29.4, higher than 95.6% of its ten years.
- SOFIMembers up 35% to 15.8M. Fwd PE 21.8, the lowest since its data begins, on adjusted EPS seen up 52.0%.
- CBOELists Robinhood's new earnings contracts. PE 20.4, cheaper than 97.6% of its ten years.
Exposed
Worth watching
- COINCrypto trading in one stock. Trailing revenue down 10.4%, a reminder of how fast activity revenue turns.
Robinhood keeps shipping, and each product widens the wallet
The idea: a better app wins more of each customer's money. Robinhood's trailing revenue rose from 2.24B in mid 2024 to 4.93B, and 13 business lines now earn over 100M a year. Gold subscribers grew 39% to 4.8M and retirement assets 82% to 34.5B. At its 29 and 30 September summit it announced AI agents that trade, crypto perpetual futures and weekend stock trading for early 2027.
It gathers assets several times faster than Schwab, and is valued for it
Robinhood customers added 74.1B in the twelve months to August, 24% of their assets, to reach 383.7B. Schwab's record August of 64.8B works out to about 6% a year on 13.41T. Three years ago Schwab was worth 11 times Robinhood. Today Schwab is worth 171.4B and Robinhood 104.5B. The market pays about 27 cents per dollar of Robinhood customer assets and 1.3 cents at Schwab.
HOOD's price already assumes the pace lasts for years
Robinhood trades at 48.0 times the next twelve months, higher than 69% of its short history (median 35.3). Consensus sees adjusted EPS up only 6.7% over that year and 31.3% in the year after, which still leaves 39.0 times. Interactive Brokers, the other fast gatherer with accounts up 35%, is at 29.4, higher than 95.6% of its ten years. Forward PE history is rebuilt with hindsight.
Schwab is priced like the loser, and it is still gathering
Schwab trades at 13.7 times the next twelve months, cheaper than 94.6% of its ten years (median 19.3). Revenue grew 20.3% and consensus sees adjusted EPS up 25.7%. August brought 424,000 new accounts, up 11%. Morgan Stanley, owner of E*Trade, is at 14.7 against a 13.9 median. So far the incumbents grow alongside Robinhood rather than shrink. Forward PE history is rebuilt with hindsight.
SoFi runs the same playbook and sits at its lowest multiple
SoFi also wants a customer's whole financial life. Members rose 35% to 15.8M and trailing revenue grew 40.8%. Yet it trades at 21.8 times the next twelve months, the lowest since its data begins in 2023 (median 53.1), with consensus adjusted EPS up 52.0%. The stock is 50.6% below its November high. The market trusts the playbook at Robinhood far more than here. Forward PE history is rebuilt with hindsight.
The surprise: the exchange behind the new contracts is cheap
Every contract Robinhood launches trades on an exchange. Its new earnings contracts will run through Cboe, and its customers traded 292.5M options contracts in August, up 50%. Yet Cboe trades at 20.4 times trailing earnings, cheaper than 97.6% of its ten years (median 28.5), while trailing EPS rose 50.4%. The venue is priced well below its history while the retail volume grows.
What would prove it wrong: revenue still follows the trading mood
Coinbase shows the risk. Its trailing revenue fell from 7.67B in September 2025 to 6.28B as crypto trading cooled, and Robinhood's crypto revenue fell 38% in the June quarter. Robinhood's own filing names the risk of bans on payment for order flow and of actions that could stop its event contracts. If deposits slow when trading cools, the premium loses support. Watch the monthly data and the 4 November report.
What has happened lately
- Robinhood, Robinhood Puts the Power of Hedge Funds in Every Trader's PocketHOOD Summit: Robinhood Agents that research and trade, weekend stock trading in early 2027, crypto perpetual futures, earnings contracts through Cboe, Social for all, 4x intraday margin and longer options hours.
- SEC, Robinhood Reports Second Quarter 2026 ResultsRevenue up 32% to 1.31B, Gold subscribers up 39% to 4.8M, net deposits of 21.7B, retirement assets up 82%, Gold Card past 1M customers, while crypto revenue fell 38%.
- GlobeNewswire, Robinhood Markets, Inc. Reports August 2026 Operating Data28.6M funded customers, platform assets of 383.7B up 26%, 74.1B of net deposits over twelve months (24%), options contracts up 50% and crypto volume down 38% from a year earlier.
- Schwab, Schwab Reports Monthly Activity HighlightsThe incumbent is not shrinking: core net new assets of 64.8B in August, up 46%, 424,000 new brokerage accounts and client assets of 13.41T.
- SEC, SoFi Reports Second Quarter 2026 ResultsMembers up 35% to 15.8M and products up 42% to 24.4M, with half of new products opened by existing members and 2026 revenue guidance raised.
- SEC, Robinhood Markets, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026The counter-case in the company's words: reliance on transaction revenue including payment for order flow, and state or federal actions that could stop event contracts.
- CoinDesk, Robinhood's agentic AI trades 24/7, and you carry the riskOver 150,000 customers opened agentic trading accounts since May. Customers carry the risk of the agents' trades, and the Bank of England has warned agents could amplify volatility in stress.
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An idea, tested against what the prices already assume.
A thesis tests an idea against prices. It is not investment advice.