SuperworthSpace Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX
- Market cap
- $2.2T
- PE
- —
- Forward PE
- Price to sales
- —
- EV/EBIT
- —
- Revenue, 12 months
- —
- Net margin
- —
- Free cash flow yield
- —
Priced for a revenue ramp it has only begun to show
At 112 times the coming year's consensus earnings, only Starlink makes money and spending runs far ahead of cash.
A 2.1 trillion dollar debut that swung both ways
SpaceX listed on 12 June and closed its first day at 160.95. On 16 June it hit 201.80. It fell to 108.27 on 5 August, the day after its first earnings report, as insider shares worth about 100 billion dollars came up for release. On 2 October it closed at 158.96, up 13% in a month and 21% below the peak, a market value of 2.10 trillion dollars.
Revenue nearly doubled in a year
Second-quarter revenue was 7.81 billion dollars, up 92% from 4.07 billion a year earlier and up from 4.69 billion in the first quarter. Starlink brought in 4.3 billion of it, the AI business (xAI, X and cloud deals) 2.6 billion and the space business (launches and Starship) 962 million. The chart has a gap in the second half of 2025, which our data does not cover.
Close to break-even, but only Starlink makes money
Operating margin went from minus 41.4% in the first quarter to minus 1.8% in the second. Inside that, Starlink earned 1.7 billion dollars of operating profit, while the AI business lost 1.3 billion and the space business lost 542 million. The net loss was 541 million.
Spending is running far ahead of cash
Capital spending was 18.37 billion dollars in the second quarter, up from 10.11 billion in the first and 4.14 billion in the first quarter of 2025 (the chart has no figure for the second). Free cash flow was minus 15.95 billion. The release puts 15.83 billion of the spending in the AI segment. That is the bear case: the bill arrives long before the revenue. The shares fell after hours on the report.
112 times consensus earnings, over three times its peers
At 158.96, consensus earnings put SpaceX at 112 times the four quarters from July 2026, against a 33.2 median for its four industry peers. That is 1.42 dollars of EPS over about 13.2 billion shares, more than twice the 5.86 billion the second-quarter loss was divided by. Readings before late September, including 282.8 in June, are rebuilt from today's estimates with hindsight.
The price needs sales to keep jumping
Consensus revenue for the four quarters from July is 77.8 billion dollars, 26.9 times sales at today's price. It starts at 12.67 billion for the September quarter, 62% above June. Management expects a 100 billion dollar yearly pace in December, about 8.3 billion in that month alone, more than the whole June quarter. The third-quarter report, not yet dated, is the first test.
What has happened lately
- SpaceX (SEC filing), SpaceX Reports Second Quarter 2026 ResultsRevenue of $7.8B, up 92%, a $541M net loss and $18.4B of capex, $15.8B of it in the AI segment. Starlink earned $1.7B of operating profit while the AI and space segments lost money.
- CNBC, SpaceX (SPCX) Q2 2026 earnings report: live updatesRevenue beat expectations by nearly $900M, but the shares fell about 8% after hours as capital spending soared.
- Bloomberg, SpaceX unlocks $101 billion in shares, raising pressure on stock priceThe first lock-up expiry after the June IPO, about 911 million insider shares, published the day the stock closed at its low of 108.27.
- CNBC, SpaceX's AI spending unnerves Wall Street despite promises of quick payoffOn the first earnings call, executives said SpaceX is on pace for $100B of annual recurring revenue by December, and Musk called that figure "not a question mark".
Headlines link to the original source.
Charts
Financials
| Income statement | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.1B | $4.1B | $4.7B | $7.8B | |
| Cost of revenue | $2B | $2.3B | $2.4B | $3.5B |
| Gross profit | $2.1B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $4.3B |
| R&D | $1.6B | $2B | $3.5B | $3.5B |
| SG&A | $493M | $606M | $746M | $912M |
| $27M | −$970M | −$1.9B | −$143M | |
| Interest expense | $447M | — | $664M | $629M |
| Pre-tax income | −$514M | −$870M | −$4.3B | −$518M |
| $14M | $138M | $6M | $23M | |
| Net income | −$528M | −$1B | −$4.3B | −$541M |
| −$0.18 | −$0.34 | −$1.27 | −$0.09 | |
| 2.9B | 2.9B | 3.9B | 5.9B |
From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings. Fiscal years are four fiscal quarters added up; balance sheet lines are as of the period's end. Growth is on the same period a year earlier.
Estimates
Analyst consensus for the next eight quarters, with the range from the lowest to the highest estimate, is part of Superworth Pro.
Peers
Companies in Industrials within ten times Space Exploration Technologies's size, closest in size first.
| Company | Market cap | PE | Its 10y median PE | Fwd PE | P/S | Revenue growth | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCXSpace Exploration Technologies Corp. | $2.2T | — | — | — | — | — | |
| CATCaterpillar Inc. | $374.1B | 35.0× | 18.8× | 5.0× | +18% | 14.5% | |
| GEGE Aerospace | $315B | 35.8× | 33.5× | 6.2× | +22% | 17.7% | |
| GEVGE Vernova Inc. | $265.6B | 28.6× | 63.7× | 6.4× | +13% | 23.0% | |
| RTXRTX Corporation | $242.9B | 31.7× | 31.7× | 2.6× | +12% | 8.3% | |
| Peer median | $290.3B | 33.4× | 32.6× | 5.6× | +16% | 16.1% |
About
- Chief executive
- Elon Musk, since 2002FounderFounded SpaceX in 2002, also CTO and chair. Source
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Sector
- Industrials
Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .