SuperworthExxon Mobil Corporation XOM
- Market cap
- $693.6B
- PE
- 21.1×
- 10y median 16.3×
- Forward PE
- Price to sales
- 1.9×
- EV/EBIT
- 15.8×
- Revenue, 12 months
- $361.1B
- +10% on a year ago
- Net margin
- 9.1%
- Free cash flow yield
- 4.5%
Priced for a war premium that analysts expect to fade
Expensive on last year's earnings, cheap on next year's, and the gap is the oil price
Up about 44 percent in a year
The stock rose from 114.26 a year ago to 164.05. It peaked at 171.47 on March 30. War in the Middle East cut about 6% of Exxon's output in the first quarter, yet higher oil prices more than made up for it. For Exxon's earnings, the oil price matters more than the barrels.
On past earnings, it looks expensive
The PE is about 21, higher than about three in four days of the last ten years. The ten-year median is 16.3. Ten integrated oil peers sit at a median of 16.3 too. The PE was lowest at 6.8 in July 2023, when earnings were near their peak. For an oil company a low PE often marks the top of the cycle, not a bargain.
One quarter of war prices more than tripled EPS
Revenue sat near 80 to 90 billion a quarter for two years, 83.16 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The second quarter jumped 38% to 114.53 billion, and GAAP EPS more than tripled to 3.48 from 1.00. Record Permian output helped, but a jump that size is mostly the oil price. Consensus sees revenue easing back to about 93 billion a quarter by mid 2028.
The trailing PE sits on a trough
Earnings swing with oil. TTM GAAP EPS was a loss of 3.11 a share in mid 2021 and 12.49 in mid 2023. By March 2026, the quarter the Mideast conflict shut part of Exxon's Gulf output, it was down to 5.93. One strong quarter lifted it to 7.77, but three weaker ones are still in that number, which is why the trailing PE looks high.
Cheap on next year, fair once the war fades
Consensus expects adjusted EPS of 12.32 over the next twelve months, about 13 times today's price and below the ten-year forward median near 15. The trailing PE uses GAAP EPS of 7.77, the forward PE adjusted EPS. Then it fades. The three quarters after that sum to 7.74, about 10.3 a year, near 16 times today's price. History before late September uses today's estimates, so treat it as rough.
Cash is the bull case, oil is the risk
TTM free cash flow is 30.55 billion, below 49.29 billion in mid 2022, a yield of about 4.5%. The dividend yields about 2.5%, lower than on 99% of days in ten years, and the stock is 2.6 times book value. Bulls point to Guyana's fifth floating production ship, due in late 2026. Bears point to oil falling once Hormuz reopens. We find out more on October 30, when consensus expects 3.79 a share.
What has happened lately
- Bloomberg, ExxonMobil to pump oil and gas from Azerbaijan's Middle Kura Basin in new dealA joint venture with Socar to explore unconventional resources, with Exxon as operator pending approval by Azerbaijan's legislature. A long-dated addition to the resource base outside the Gulf.
- ExxonMobil, ExxonMobil announces second-quarter 2026 resultsEarnings of $14.5B, or $3.48 a share, on record Permian output. $9.4B returned to shareholders, and the fifth Guyana vessel set sail for a 4Q26 startup.
- Bloomberg, Exxon says Mideast conflict cut 6% of its global output in the first quarterDamage to Qatar LNG trains and the Strait of Hormuz closure hit operations in Qatar and the UAE, a region that normally supplies about a fifth of Exxon's output.
Headlines link to the original source.
Charts
Financials
| Income statement | Q4 FY23 | Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81.7B | $80.4B | $90B | $87.8B | $81.1B−1% | $81.1B+1% | $79.5B−12% | $83.3B−5% | $80B−1% | $83.2B+3% | $114.5B+44% | |
| Cost of revenue | $64B | $61.5B | $69.8B | $67.4B | $63.8B−0% | $62.6B+2% | $61.5B−12% | $64.6B−4% | $64.9B+2% | $51.8B−17% | $88.9B+45% |
| Gross profit | $17.7B | $18.9B | $20.2B | $20.4B | $17.2B−3% | $18.5B−2% | $17.9B−11% | $18.7B−8% | $15.1B−12% | $31.4B+70% | $25.6B+43% |
| R&D | $879M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| SG&A | $2.6B | $2.5B | $2.6B | $2.3B | $2.6B+1% | $2.5B+2% | $2.5B−2% | $3B+32% | $3B+16% | $2.7B+6% | $2.5B−2% |
| $8.5B | $9.9B | $10.9B | $11B | $7.8B−8% | $9.8B−1% | $8.9B−18% | $9.2B−17% | $6B−23% | $5.3B−46% | $18.2B+104% | |
| Interest expense | $272M | $221M | $271M | $207M | $297M+9% | $205M−7% | $271M+0% | $207M+0% | −$80M | $295M+44% | $227M−16% |
| Pre-tax income | $10.6B | $12.4B | $13.7B | $13B | $9.8B−8% | $11.6B−6% | $10.7B−22% | $10.9B−16% | $8B−18% | $7B−40% | $19.4B+81% |
| $2.6B | $3.8B | $4.1B | $4.1B | $1.9B−29% | $3.6B−6% | $3.4B−18% | $3.2B−22% | $1.4B−24% | $2.5B−30% | $4.5B+36% | |
| Net income | $7.6B | $8.2B | $9.2B | $8.6B | $7.6B−0% | $7.7B−6% | $7.1B−23% | $7.5B−12% | $6.5B−15% | $4.2B−46% | $14.5B+105% |
| $1.91 | $2.06 | $2.14 | $1.92 | $1.72−10% | $1.76−15% | $1.64−23% | $1.76−8% | $1.53−11% | $1.00−43% | $3.48+112% | |
| 4B | 4B | 4.3B | 4.5B | 4.5B+11% | 4.5B+12% | 4.3B+0% | 4.3B−3% | 4.2B−5% | 4.2B−6% | 4.2B−4% |
From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings. Fiscal years are four fiscal quarters added up; balance sheet lines are as of the period's end. Growth is on the same period a year earlier.
Estimates
Next earnings report: .
Analyst consensus for the next eight quarters, with the range from the lowest to the highest estimate, is part of Superworth Pro.
Peers
Companies in Energy within ten times Exxon Mobil's size, closest in size first.
| Company | Market cap | PE | Its 10y median PE | Fwd PE | P/S | Revenue growth | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOMExxon Mobil Corporation | $693.7B | 21.1× | 16.3× | 1.9× | +10% | 9.1% | |
| CVXChevron Corporation | $418B | 19.7× | 17.2× | 1.9× | +11% | 9.9% | |
| COPConocoPhillips | $161.3B | 17.2× | 12.5× | 2.5× | +10% | 14.7% | |
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | $130B | 15.2× | 10.4× | 0.8× | +15% | 5.6% | |
| VLOValero Energy Corporation | $127.6B | 17.6× | 13.0× | 0.9× | +13% | 5.2% | |
| PSXPhillips 66 | $111.7B | 15.5× | 11.7× | 0.7× | +14% | 4.7% | |
| WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc. | $88.6B | 28.5× | 28.1× | 7.2× | +9% | 25.2% | |
| EPDEnterprise Products Partners L.P. | $79.7B | 12.8× | 12.4× | 1.4× | +7% | 10.8% | |
| EOGEOG Resources, Inc. | $77.8B | 11.2× | 12.3× | 2.8× | +19% | 25.4% | |
| SLBSlb N.V. | $72.6B | 23.4× | 21.6× | 2.0× | +3% | 8.5% | |
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | $71.9B | 20.4× | 22.7× | 3.9× | +12% | 19.3% | |
| Peer median | $100.1B | 17.4× | 12.8× | 1.9× | +12% | 10.3% |
About
- Chief executive
- Darren Woods, since 2017Joined 1992, CEO since 2017. Source
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
- Sector
- Energy
Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .