SuperworthCostco Wholesale Corporation COST
- Market cap
- $420.4B
- PE
- 45.4×
- 10y median 38.4×
- Forward PE
- Price to sales
- 1.4×
- EV/EBIT
- 33.7×
- Revenue, 12 months
- $303.2B
- +10% on a year ago
- Net margin
- 3.0%
- Free cash flow yield
- 2.2%
Nothing broke, and the multiple fell anyway
What a de-rating looks like on a good business
The business kept compounding
Revenue went from 246 billion to 294 billion dollars, growing every year without drama. Membership retail is meant to look exactly like this.
So did earnings
Earnings per share went from 14.67 to 19.88 dollars between late 2023 and May 2026. Growth was near 20 percent in the year to May 2024 and about 11 percent a year since. The September 24 report took fiscal 2026 to 20.76 dollars, and 15 cents of that came from one-off tariff refunds.
Margins hit a 10-year high and are still thin
Net margin is 3.0 percent and operating margin 3.8, both the highest in ten years. Costco keeps about three cents of every sales dollar as profit. Membership fees make up much of that. That is the model working, not failing.
But the stock is well below its high
Market value peaked at 485 billion dollars on May 19, 2026. It is 415 billion now, 14.5 percent lower, while revenue kept climbing. Over a full year it is still up 2.7 percent, so this is a pullback from a peak, not a bad year.
The multiple did that, not the business
PE is the price divided by a year of earnings. It peaked at 63.2 in February 2025. The price kept rising to May 2026, but earnings rose faster, so the PE was already lower at the price peak. The fall since May is the multiple, not earnings. It is 47.1 now, below its 3-year median of 52.0.
Over ten years, it is still not cheap
Even after the drop, a PE of 47.1 is higher than 74 percent of the last ten years, where the median was 38.4. The 10 peers in its industry sit at a median of 24.1, about half. That is the fear: twice the peer multiple for earnings growing about 11 percent a year leaves little room for a slow year.
The price assumes growth near 10 percent keeps going
Analysts expect 22.06 dollars a share in the year to May 2027, about 11 percent more than the year before. At today's price that is 42.4 times earnings. The quarter to August, the first of those, already reported 6.75 against a 6.54 estimate, or 6.60 without the refunds. Holding this multiple assumes growth near 10 percent or faster. The next test is the report scheduled for December 10.
What has happened lately
- Costco, Costco fiscal Q4 net sales rise 11.2% to $93.9 billion; EPS $6.75 includes $0.15 tariff refund benefitFY26 EPS rose to $20.76 and Q4 membership fees to $1.85B, but $0.15 of Q4 EPS came from one-off tariff refunds that will not repeat.
- DoorDash, Costco goes live on DoorDash nationwide for same-day deliveryAdds a second national same-day channel alongside Instacart, widening reach for Costco's fast-growing digitally enabled sales.
- Uber, Costco expands Uber Eats delivery to 47 states and nearly 600 warehousesThird-party delivery goes from 17 to 47 states and bundles discounted Uber One, a lever on membership signups and e-commerce growth.
- Costco, Costco August net sales up 9.9%, fiscal 2026 net sales reach $297.3 billionCloses FY26 with 10.2% sales growth and 8.4% total company comps, the top-line base that the fourth-quarter report built on.
Headlines link to the original source.
Charts
Financials
| Income statement | Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $57.8B | $58.4B | $58.5B | $79.7B | $62.2B+8% | $63.7B+9% | $63.2B+8% | $86.2B+8% | $67.3B+8% | $69.6B+9% | $70.5B+12% | $95.7B+11% | |
| Cost of revenue | $50.5B | $51.1B | $51.2B | $69.6B | $54.1B+7% | $55.7B+9% | $55B+8% | $75B+8% | $58.5B+8% | $60.7B+9% | $61.5B+12% | $83.5B+11% |
| Gross profit | $7.3B | $7.3B | $7.3B | $10.1B | $8B+10% | $8B+9% | $8.2B+12% | $11.1B+10% | $8.8B+9% | $8.9B+11% | $9B+10% | $12.2B+10% |
| SG&A | $5.4B | $5.2B | $5.1B | $7.1B | $5.8B+9% | $5.7B+8% | $5.7B+10% | $7.8B+10% | $6.3B+8% | $6.3B+11% | $6.2B+9% | $8.4B+8% |
| $2B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $3B | $2.2B+11% | $2.3B+12% | $2.5B+15% | $3.3B+10% | $2.5B+12% | $2.6B+13% | $2.8B+11% | $3.8B+14% | |
| Interest expense | $38M | $41M | $41M | $49M | $37M−3% | $36M−12% | $35M−15% | $46M−6% | $35M−5% | $33M−8% | $32M−9% | $45M−2% |
| Pre-tax income | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.3B | $3.1B | $2.3B+10% | $2.4B+8% | $2.6B+13% | $3.5B+13% | $2.6B+12% | $2.7B+12% | $2.9B+14% | $4B+14% |
| $517M | $494M | $603M | $759M | $508M−2% | $634M+28% | $677M+12% | $900M+19% | $582M+15% | $686M+8% | $746M+10% | $1B+12% | |
| Net income | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $2.4B | $1.8B+13% | $1.8B+3% | $1.9B+13% | $2.6B+11% | $2B+11% | $2B+14% | $2.2B+15% | $3B+15% |
| $3.58 | $3.92 | $3.78 | $5.29 | $4.04+13% | $4.02+3% | $4.28+13% | $5.87+11% | $4.50+11% | $4.58+14% | $4.93+15% | $6.75+15% | |
| 444.4M | 444.8M | 444.8M | 445M | 444.9M+0% | 444.9M+0% | 444.8M+0% | 444.7M−0% | 444.5M−0% | 444.4M−0% | 444.4M−0% | 444.4M−0% |
From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings. Fiscal years are four fiscal quarters added up; balance sheet lines are as of the period's end. Growth is on the same period a year earlier.
Estimates
Next earnings report: .
Analyst consensus for the next eight quarters, with the range from the lowest to the highest estimate, is part of Superworth Pro.
Peers
Companies in Consumer Defensive within ten times Costco Wholesale's size, closest in size first.
| Company | Market cap | PE | Its 10y median PE | Fwd PE | P/S | Revenue growth | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation | $420.4B | 45.4× | 38.4× | 1.4× | +10% | 3.0% | |
| KOThe Coca-Cola Company | $378.5B | 25.8× | 27.7× | 7.4× | +7% | 28.6% | |
| PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $349.8B | 22.3× | 25.2× | 3.9× | +3% | 18.4% | |
| PMPhilip Morris International Inc. | $314.5B | 27.7× | 18.4× | 7.1× | +9% | 25.6% | |
| WMTWalmart Inc. | $879.9B | 39.0× | 31.2× | 1.2× | +6% | 3.0% | |
| PEPPepsiCo, Inc. | $173B | 16.2× | 25.8× | 1.7× | +6% | 10.8% | |
| MOAltria Group, Inc. | $119.4B | 14.6× | 13.2× | 4.9× | −1% | 34.0% | |
| MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation | $86.1B | 39.5× | 37.7× | 9.1× | +20% | 23.1% | |
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | $77.3B | 21.8× | 22.5× | 1.9× | +7% | 8.9% | |
| TGTTarget Corporation | $70.8B | 15.7× | 15.7× | 0.6× | +2% | 4.1% | |
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | $70.3B | 34.6× | 27.2× | 3.3× | +5% | 9.7% | |
| Peer median | $146.2B | 24.1× | 25.5× | 3.6× | +6% | 14.6% |
About
- Chief executive
- Ron Vachris, since 2024Started at Price Club in 1982, CEO since 2024.
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .