SuperworthWalmart Inc. WMT
- Market cap
- $862.3B
- PE
- 39.0×
- 10y median 31.2×
- Forward PE
- Price to sales
- 1.2×
- EV/EBIT
- 28.0×
- Revenue, 12 months
- $735.8B
- +6% on a year ago
- Net margin
- 3.0%
- Free cash flow yield
- 1.6%
Growth is speeding up, but the price already assumes more
About 20% off its May peak, Walmart still trades above its own history and its peers
Rich against its history and its peers
Walmart trades at about 39 times the last four quarters of earnings. That matches its three-year median. Over ten years it is higher than about 70% of days, where the median is 31. Its six industry peers trade at a median of 24.
Sales rose 30% in five years, the price 135%
Revenue over four quarters rose 30% in five years, while the share price rose about 135%. Growth is picking up, though. Sales rose 6.2% in the latest year, the fastest in two years, up from 4.2% a year earlier.
The bull case is a richer mix of income
Price to sales is about 1.2, higher than about 90% of the last ten years. The bull case is the mix. In the July quarter advertising grew 38% and membership fees 17%. Ads and fees cost little to deliver, so each dollar of them adds more profit than a dollar of groceries.
Free cash flow fell 30% in three years
Free cash flow over four quarters fell from 19.22 billion dollars in July 2023 to 13.51 billion. At today's price a buyer gets about 1.6 cents of cash a year for each dollar paid. The ten-year median is 4.4 cents. That is the fear: a stock priced for growth while its cash shrinks.
The bet is a fatter margin
Operating margin over four quarters is 4.4%, up from 3.3% in early 2023. Analysts see adjusted earnings rising about 14% in the year to July 2028, on sales up about 5%. That gap is the bet: ads and fees widening the margin. Tariff refunds lifted the July quarter, but they are a one-time gain, and Walmart is putting what remains back into prices.
Two reports, two drops
The stock peaked at 134.20 on May 19. Two days later Walmart gave a weaker outlook than expected as gas prices squeezed shoppers. On August 20 it raised its full-year guidance, but US comparable sales (sales at stores open at least a year) grew 2.6% against the 3.5% analysts wanted. The shares closed about 9% lower. At about 107 they are 20% below the peak and up 4% on the year.
Even next year's earnings don't make it cheap
Forward PE is the price over the next twelve months of expected earnings. On the 3.00 a share of adjusted earnings analysts expect, Walmart trades near 36 times. The 3.42 they see the year after makes it about 31. Its five-year median, partly rebuilt with hindsight, is about 26. Back at that median, 3.00 would mean a price of about 77. November 19 tells us if shoppers came back.
What has happened lately
- SEC, Walmart reports second quarter resultsRevenue rose 5.9% to 187.9 billion dollars, advertising grew 38% and membership income 17%. Tariff refunds lifted operating income, and Walmart is putting the rest into prices. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance rose to 2.80 to 2.87.
- CNBC, Walmart stock tumbles 9% after outlook disappoints Wall StreetUS comparable sales grew 2.6%, short of the 3.5% analysts expected, with drug price caps cutting 0.8 points, and the shares closed about 9% lower despite the raised guidance.
- CNBC, Walmart first-quarter earningsSales beat and US comparable sales rose 4.1%, but a weaker than expected outlook as gas prices hit shoppers sent the shares down about 8% from near their peak.
Headlines link to the original source.
Charts
Financials
| Income statement | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 | Q2 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160.8B | $173.4B | $161.5B | $169.3B | $169.6B+6% | $180.6B+4% | $165.6B+3% | $177.4B+5% | $179.5B+6% | $190.7B+6% | $177.8B+7% | $187.9B+6% | |
| Cost of revenue | $121.2B | $131.8B | $121.4B | $126.8B | $127.3B+5% | $136.2B+3% | $124.3B+2% | $132.8B+5% | $134.7B+6% | $143.6B+6% | $133.1B+7% | $138.8B+5% |
| Gross profit | $39.6B | $41.6B | $40.1B | $42.5B | $42.2B+7% | $44.4B+7% | $41.3B+3% | $44.6B+5% | $44.8B+6% | $47B+6% | $44.7B+8% | $49.1B+10% |
| SG&A | $33.4B | $34.3B | $33.2B | $34.6B | $35.5B+6% | $36.5B+7% | $34.2B+3% | $37.3B+8% | $38.1B+7% | $38.3B+5% | $37.2B+9% | $39.8B+6% |
| $6.2B | $7.3B | $6.8B | $7.9B | $6.7B+8% | $7.9B+8% | $7.1B+4% | $7.3B−8% | $6.7B−0% | $8.7B+11% | $7.5B+5% | $9.4B+29% | |
| Interest expense | $682M | $695M | $714M | $679M | $618M−9% | $717M+3% | $637M−11% | $769M+13% | $684M+11% | $709M−1% | $699M+10% | $263M−66% |
| Pre-tax income | $915M | $7.5B | $7B | $6.2B | $6.1B+566% | $7B−7% | $6B−15% | $9.3B+50% | $8.2B+34% | $6B−14% | $7.1B+19% | $8B−14% |
| $272M | $1.8B | $1.7B | $1.5B | $1.4B+409% | $1.5B−16% | $1.4B−22% | $2.2B+44% | $2.1B+52% | $1.6B+3% | $1.7B+22% | $1.5B−32% | |
| Net income | $453M | $5.5B | $5.1B | $4.5B | $4.6B+910% | $5.3B−4% | $4.5B−12% | $7B+56% | $6.1B+34% | $4.2B−19% | $5.3B+19% | $6.4B−9% |
| $0.06 | $0.68 | $0.63 | $0.56 | $0.57+850% | $0.65−4% | $0.56−11% | $0.88+57% | $0.77+35% | $0.53−19% | $0.67+20% | $0.80−9% | |
| 8.1B | 8.1B | 8.1B | 8.1B | 8.1B−0% | 8.1B−0% | 8.1B−0% | 8B−1% | 8B−1% | 8B−1% | 8B−1% | 8B−1% |
From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings. Fiscal years are four fiscal quarters added up; balance sheet lines are as of the period's end. Growth is on the same period a year earlier.
Estimates
Next earnings report: .
Analyst consensus for the next eight quarters, with the range from the lowest to the highest estimate, is part of Superworth Pro.
Peers
Companies in Consumer Defensive within ten times Walmart's size, closest in size first.
| Company | Market cap | PE | Its 10y median PE | Fwd PE | P/S | Revenue growth | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMTWalmart Inc. | $858.1B | 39.0× | 31.2× | 1.2× | +6% | 3.0% | |
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation | $417.5B | 45.4× | 38.4× | 1.4× | +10% | 3.0% | |
| KOThe Coca-Cola Company | $369.2B | 25.8× | 27.7× | 7.4× | +7% | 28.6% | |
| PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $343.6B | 22.3× | 25.2× | 3.9× | +3% | 18.4% | |
| PMPhilip Morris International Inc. | $300.3B | 27.7× | 18.4× | 7.1× | +9% | 25.6% | |
| PEPPepsiCo, Inc. | $168.9B | 16.2× | 25.8× | 1.7× | +6% | 10.8% | |
| MOAltria Group, Inc. | $115.8B | 14.6× | 13.2× | 4.9× | −1% | 34.0% | |
| Peer median | $322B | 24.1× | 25.5× | 4.4× | +6% | 22.0% |
About
- Chief executive
- John Furner, since 2026Joined as an hourly associate in 1993, CEO since February 2026. Source
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .