SuperworthAI went from code to math to biology, and prices pay for other things
Coding already has a loser, priced like one. The biology names rose on a spending recovery, and the trial runner AI could shrink trades at its median.
A thesis by Superworth
Helped
- GOOGOwns DeepMind and Isomorphic, behind the math and biology milestones. Fwd PE 26.2 near its 25.0 ten-year median.
- NVDASells the compute every field runs on. Fwd PE 19.1, cheaper than 96% of its ten years, adjusted EPS seen up 71%.
- AVGOCustom AI chips. Fwd PE 20.9 against a ten-year median of 16.8.
- SNPSChip design software. Fwd PE 24.2, cheaper than 81% of its ten years, below the price Nvidia paid.
- CDNSChip design software. Fwd PE 35.6 against a ten-year median of 37.4.
- LLYIsomorphic partner with an AI lab planned with Nvidia. Fwd PE 28.7 near its 27.3 ten-year median, below its 35.7 three-year one.
- NVSIsomorphic partner since January 2024. Fwd PE 15.0 against a ten-year median of 14.3.
- TMOSells lab instruments and also runs trials. Fwd PE 25.3, above 74% of its ten years, up 40% in three months after its July results.
- DHRLife science tools. Fwd PE 25.3, below its ten-year median of 28.0.
- ALab instruments. Fwd PE 25.5 near its 24.8 median, with the price at a three-year high.
Exposed
Code fell first, then math, and biology is next
Google said in April that AI writes 75% of its new code, up from 50% last fall. Math came next: its Gemini model earned a certified gold at the July 2025 math olympiad. AlphaFold's protein work won a 2024 Nobel. Alphabet did all three, yet trades at 26.2 times the next twelve months, near its ten-year median of 25.0. Its earnings still come from search and cloud. Forward PE history is rebuilt with hindsight.
The compute seller is not priced for a second wave
Every field AI takes on runs on the same kind of compute. Nvidia committed up to 1B to a drug lab with Lilly in January and put 2B into Synopsys last December. It trades at 19.1 times the next twelve months, cheaper than 96% of its ten years (median 33.9), while consensus sees adjusted EPS up 71%. Broadcom is at 20.9, above its 16.8 median. A low multiple on fast growth says the market doubts how long the spending lasts. Forward PE history is rebuilt with hindsight.
Chip design fell on China, not on agents
Synopsys lost about a third in one day in September 2025, on results hurt by China sales. Revenue is up 46.3% over the year, with Ansys added since July 2025. It trades at 24.2 times the next twelve months, cheaper than 81% of its ten years (median 31.6), and at 409 sits below the 414.79 a share Nvidia paid. Cadence is at 35.6 against a 37.4 median. AI agents have not moved either price yet. Forward PE history is rebuilt with hindsight.
The drugmakers betting on AI are priced for their drugs
Lilly and Novartis both signed with Isomorphic, Alphabet's drug design unit, in January 2024, and Lilly agreed a lab with Nvidia this January. Lilly trades at 28.7 times the next twelve months, near its 27.3 ten-year median and below its 35.7 three-year one, on adjusted EPS seen up 29.6%. Novartis is at 15.0 against 14.3. If AI cuts the cost of finding drugs, these prices do not show it yet. Forward PE history is rebuilt with hindsight.
The lab tools rallied on results, not on AI
AI biology still runs on lab experiments, and Thermo Fisher sells the instruments. It rose 40% in three months, after July results with revenue up 10%, to 25.3 times the next twelve months, higher than 74% of its ten years (median 22.1). Agilent is at 25.5 (median 24.8), Danaher at 25.3 (median 28.0). The rally tracks a spending recovery, so AI biology is not what these prices pay for yet. Forward PE history is rebuilt with hindsight.
Coding's loser is priced as one. Biology's is not
Drugmakers pay IQVIA to run trials, work AI promises to shorten. OpenAI launched a drug research model in April, yet IQVIA's revenue growth rose from 2.8% to 8.2% since late 2024. It trades at 19.8 times the next twelve months, near its 20.3 median. Accenture, the coding precedent, is at 12.5, cheaper than 97.5% of its ten years. Watch IQVIA's 26.2% gross margin, lower than 97.5% of its ten years. Forward PE history is rebuilt with hindsight.
What would prove it wrong: biology has not reached revenue
If AI were solving biology, the makers of biological data should sell more. Illumina's trailing revenue is 4.49B, near the 4.46B of three years ago, partly because China banned its sequencers in 2025 and university labs lost funding. Yet the stock rose 144% in a year to 43.4 times forward earnings, on revenue seen up 5.5%. Rentosertib, the first generative AI drug in Phase 3, dosed its first patient on 9 September in a 52-week trial.
What comes next: materials, at a price set by the chip cycle
After math and biology, labs aim at materials. DeepMind plans a UK robot lab in 2026 to find superconductors and chip materials. Applied Materials trades at 27.5 times the next twelve months, higher than 96% of its ten years (median 15.2), down from 46.1 in June. That is the chip cycle: adjusted EPS is seen up 57.5% and revenue up 41.2%. Materials discovery is not in the price. Watch Nvidia's 18 November results. Forward PE history is rebuilt with hindsight.
What has happened lately
- Google, Sundar Pichai shares news from Google Cloud Next 2026The coding precedent in Google's words: 75% of all new code at Google is now AI-generated and approved by engineers, up from 50% last fall.
- Google, Google's year in review: 8 areas with research breakthroughs in 2025The math milestone: an advanced Gemini with Deep Think officially reached gold-medal standard at the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad, graded by the olympiad's coordinators.
- Bloomberg, Synopsys Plunges After Trade War Weighs on Its Chinese SalesThe cause of the September 2025 drop on the Synopsys chart: results hurt by weaker sales in China, not AI agents.
- CNBC, Nvidia takes $2 billion stake in Synopsys with expanded computing power partnershipNvidia bought Synopsys stock at 414.79 a share to push AI and accelerated computing into chip design and engineering simulation.
- NVIDIA, NVIDIA and Lilly Announce Co-Innovation AI Lab to Reinvent Drug Discovery in the Age of AIUp to 1B over five years for a lab that links Lilly's agentic wet labs with computational dry labs for 24/7 AI-assisted experiments.
- SEC, Thermo Fisher Scientific Reports Second Quarter 2026 ResultsSecond-quarter revenue rose 10% to 11.99B, the results that came before Thermo's three-month rally.
- Bloomberg, OpenAI Takes on Google With New AI Model Aimed at Drug DiscoveryGPT-Rosalind, OpenAI's first life science model, launched with Amgen and Moderna as early users, aimed at speeding early drug research.
- SEC, IQVIA Reports Second-Quarter 2026 ResultsIQVIA raised its 2026 revenue guidance to 17.275B to 17.475B and credited growing adoption of its own AI solutions.
- STAT, Illumina CEO sees path to stable growth, even as its academic customers face funding uncertaintyThe non-AI reasons Illumina's revenue went flat: China banned its sequencers in 2025, and funding cuts hit the university labs that buy them.
- PR Newswire, Insilico Medicine Doses First Patient in GENESIS-IPF-3, the World's First Phase III Trial of a Generative AI-Driven Innovative DrugRentosertib, which Insilico calls the first drug discovered and developed with generative AI to reach Phase 3, starts a 52-week trial measuring lung function.
- CNBC, Google's AI unit DeepMind announces its first 'automated research lab' in the UKThe next field: a robot lab opening in 2026 to find new materials, including superconductors and materials for chips.
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An idea, tested against what the prices already assume.
A thesis tests an idea against prices. It is not investment advice.