SuperworthOracle ORCL
- Market cap
- $381.5B
- PE
- 19.8×
- 10y median 27.3×
- Forward PE
- 14.8×
- 10y median 17.1×
- Price to sales
- 5.3×
- EV/EBIT
- 21.7×
- Revenue, 12 months
- $71.8B
- +22% on a year ago
- Net margin
- 26.4%
- Free cash flow yield
- −7.5%
A Superworth story
A record AI backlog, priced like a risk
Oracle has 664 billion dollars of signed contracts waiting to be delivered. The stock has halved anyway, because delivering them burns cash and much of the backlog rests on one customer, OpenAI.
The biggest day in three decades, then half the value gone
In September 2025 Oracle said customers, OpenAI above all, had signed up for hundreds of billions of dollars of AI computing. The stock had its best day since 1992. A year later the shares sell for less than half what they did, as investors balk at how much the build costs and who will pay for it.
Profit rose while the multiple collapsed
Reported profit per share grew by almost half in a year, though one unusually strong quarter last winter did much of the lifting. The price fell anyway. Investors pay about 21 times reported profit, cheaper than about two in three days of the last ten years. On adjusted profit, which leaves out stock pay and other costs, it is about 17 times.
A business that stood still is growing again
For years Oracle's sales barely moved, apart from a one-time step when it bought the health records firm Cerner in 2022. Now founder Larry Ellison, still chairman and technology chief, is betting the company on renting out AI computing. A year of sales is 71.8 billion dollars, up about a fifth, and the cloud infrastructure arm more than doubled last quarter.
Building it burns cash faster than it comes in
For most of the decade Oracle turned out billions of free cash every year, what is left after paying to run and expand the business. Over the last twelve months it burned 28.7 billion dollars instead. It now spends about ten times as much a year on chips and data centers as it did two years ago, building ahead of the contracts that will fill them.
Now it pays with new shares, and lenders are wary
Oracle spent years buying back its stock, cutting the share count by more than a third. Now the count is rising again. Last quarter Oracle sold 20 billion dollars of new shares to help pay for the build. In July S&P cut its credit rating to one notch above junk and named OpenAI, its biggest customer, a key credit risk.
The price assumes the payoff comes a year late
The line, rebuilt with hindsight before late September, puts Oracle at about 16 times consensus earnings for the next twelve months. Analysts see sales up by more than a third but adjusted profit per share only a little higher, partly because the past year holds that one strong quarter. The year after, they see profit up about two fifths, which at today's price drops the multiple to about 11.
2027 decides whether the backlog was worth it
Oracle has guided to sales growth of 30 to 34% in its next report. The bigger test starts in 2027, when OpenAI's contract begins to pay, and Bank of America estimates OpenAI is more than half the backlog. Analysts see a year of sales roughly doubling within two years. If the backlog becomes revenue and then cash, today's price is low for what is coming. If OpenAI cannot pay, Oracle is left holding the data centers.
What has happened lately
- Oracle (SEC filing), Oracle announces fiscal year 2027 first quarter financial resultsRevenue $19.3B, up 30%. Cloud infrastructure $7.4B, up 121%. Backlog (RPO) $664B. Oracle sold $20B of common stock in the quarter. Free cash flow −$5.4B on $28.5B of capex. Guided Q2 revenue growth of 30-34%.
- CNBC (markets live coverage), S&P downgrades Oracle to its lowest investment-grade ratingS&P cut Oracle to BBB-, one notch above junk, citing rising capex, an uncertain path to profitability and high customer concentration. It named OpenAI a key credit risk.
- CNBC, Oracle shares tumble 11% on increased capital raise, cash concernsBacklog (RPO) reached $638B at the end of May. Bank of America analysts said more than half of it comes from OpenAI. Shares fell on plans to raise more money for the build.
- CNBC, OpenAI's spending spree is powering the tech industry. Oracle is the latest winnerOracle had its best day since 1992 after its backlog jumped to $455B. OpenAI agreed to spend $300B on computing power over about five years, starting in 2027.
Headlines link to the original source.
Brought to you by Superworth
Why a stock is priced where it is, one chart at a time.
Charts
Financials
| Income statement | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.9B+5% | $13.3B+7% | $14.3B+3% | $13.3B+7% | $14.1B+9% | $14.1B+6% | $15.9B+11% | $14.9B+12% | $16.1B+14% | $17.2B+22% | $19.2B+21% | $19.3B+30% | |
| Cost of revenue | $3.7B+11% | $3.9B+13% | $3.9B+5% | $3.9B+8% | $4.1B+9% | $4.2B+8% | $4.7B+21% | $4.9B+25% | $5.4B+32% | $6.1B+45% | $6.7B+41% | $7.7B+58% |
| Gross profit | $9.2B+3% | $9.4B+5% | $10.4B+3% | $9.4B+6% | $10B+8% | $9.9B+6% | $11.2B+8% | $10B+7% | $10.7B+7% | $11.1B+12% | $12.5B+12% | $11.6B+16% |
| R&D | $2.2B+3% | $2.2B+5% | $2.2B+0% | $2.3B+4% | $2.5B+11% | $2.4B+8% | $2.7B+19% | $2.5B+8% | $2.6B+4% | $2.6B+7% | $2.6B−2% | $2.4B−4% |
| SG&A | $2.5B−4% | $2.4B−5% | $2.5B−7% | $2.4B−1% | $2.6B+4% | $2.5B+4% | $2.8B+10% | $2.4B+2% | $2.6B−1% | $2.4B−3% | $2.5B−9% | $2.2B−10% |
| $3.6B+18% | $3.8B+15% | $4.7B+13% | $4B+21% | $4.2B+17% | $4.4B+16% | $5.1B+9% | $4.3B+7% | $4.7B+12% | $5.5B+25% | $6.1B+20% | $6.7B+57% | |
| Interest expense | $888M+4% | $876M−4% | $878M−8% | $842M−3% | $866M−3% | $892M+2% | $978M+11% | $923M+10% | $1.1B+22% | $1.2B+32% | $1.4B+47% | $1.4B+55% |
| Pre-tax income | $2.7B+27% | $2.9B+29% | $3.8B+22% | $3.2B+33% | $3.4B+25% | $3.4B+20% | $4.2B+10% | $3.4B+8% | $6.3B+87% | $4.4B+28% | $5.4B+29% | $5.6B+64% |
| $217M−46% | $464M+44% | $638M | $240M | $239M+10% | $512M+10% | $725M+14% | $500M+108% | $207M−13% | $695M+36% | $1.1B+47% | $847M+69% | |
| Net income | $2.5B+44% | $2.4B+27% | $3.1B−5% | $2.9B+21% | $3.2B+26% | $2.9B+22% | $3.4B+9% | $2.9B−0% | $6.1B+95% | $3.7B+27% | $4.3B+26% | $4.8B+63% |
| $0.89+41% | $0.85+25% | $1.11−7% | $1.03+20% | $1.10+24% | $1.02+20% | $1.19+7% | $1.01−2% | $2.10+91% | $1.27+25% | $1.45+22% | $1.56+55% | |
| 2.8B+3% | 2.8B+2% | 2.8B+1% | 2.9B+1% | 2.9B+2% | 2.9B+2% | 2.9B+1% | 2.9B+2% | 2.9B+2% | 2.9B+1% | 2.9B+2% | 3B+3% |
Gross profit: 71 periods, Q3 FY09 to Q1 FY27: not printed by the filing, worked out from its own lines.
Net income: 15 periods, Q1 FY09 to Q3 FY12: not printed by the filing, worked out from its own lines. 15 periods, Q4 FY12 to Q4 FY26: printed in the fourth-quarter results release.
EPS, diluted: 5 periods, Q1 FY09 to Q4 FY11: quarter's net income to common over its shares, to the cent. 15 periods, Q4 FY12 to Q4 FY26: printed in the fourth-quarter results release.
Diluted shares: 3 periods, Q4 FY09 to Q4 FY11: share-days: the 12-month average less the 9-month, weighted by days. 15 periods, Q4 FY12 to Q4 FY26: printed in the fourth-quarter results release.
From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings, the newest version of each figure. Quarters are as filed (a fourth quarter is the year less its first nine months), fiscal years as the 10-K prints them, restated where a later 10-K restated them, and balance sheet lines as of the period's end. A quarter whose 10-Q isn't filed yet is from the company's results release. Growth is on the same period a year earlier. A dash is a period with no figure for the line: the filing doesn't print it, or it hasn't been read yet.
Estimates
Next earnings report: .
| Quarter | Revenue | Range | EPS | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY27 | $21.3B | $21.2B to $21.4B | $1.89 | $1.85 to $1.92 | 21 |
| Q3 FY27 | $23.4B | $22.6B to $23.8B | $2.02 | $1.96 to $2.09 | 21 |
| Q4 FY27 | $26.4B | $26B to $26.8B | $2.29 | $2.25 to $2.33 | 9 |
| Q1 FY28 | $27.6B | $27.1B to $27.9B | $2.31 | $2.26 to $2.35 | 12 |
| Q2 FY28 | $31B | $30.5B to $31.4B | $2.54 | $2.48 to $2.58 | 17 |
| Q3 FY28 | $34.6B | $34B to $35B | $2.87 | $2.81 to $2.92 | 10 |
| Q4 FY28 | $39.4B | $38.7B to $39.9B | $3.30 | $3.23 to $3.36 | 11 |
| Q1 FY29 | $40.7B | $40.1B to $41.3B | $3.33 | $3.27 to $3.39 | 17 |
Peers
Companies in Software - Infrastructure nearest Oracle's size, closest first.
| Company | Market cap | PE | Its 10y median PE | Fwd PE | P/S | Revenue growth | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCLOracle | $381.5B | 19.8× | 27.3× | 14.8× | 5.3× | +22% | 26.4% |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks | $311.3B | n/m | 111× | 90.9× | 27.1× | +24% | 2.7% |
| PLTRPalantir Technologies | $472.8B | 168× | 252× | 104× | 76.8× | +79% | 49.0% |
| CRWDCrowdStrike | $263.7B | n/m | 438× | 182× | 48.9× | +24% | 0.8% |
| FTNTFortinet | $132.1B | 63.4× | 56.4× | 51.1× | 17.5× | +19% | 28.2% |
| NETCloudflare | $116B | n/m | n/a | 220× | 46.2× | +34% | −8.2% |
| SNPSSynopsys | $82.4B | 76.0× | 54.3× | 24.5× | 8.8× | +46% | 11.4% |
| XYZBlock | $45.9B | 137× | 82.4× | 16.7× | 1.8× | +5% | 1.4% |
| ZSZscaler | $41.6B | n/m | n/a | 52.3× | 12.4× | +25% | −1.9% |
| TWLOTwilio | $40.2B | 36.5× | 299× | 42.3× | 7.2× | +18% | 20.6% |
| Peer median | $116B | 76.0× | 111× | 52.3× | 17.5× | +24% | 2.7% |
Investors who own it
Investors we follow who held Oracle at the end of Jun 30, 2026, from their 13F filings.
- Polen CapitalPolen Capital4.5% of portfoliotrimmed
- Bill NygrenHarris Associates (Oakmark)0.1% of portfoliotrimmed
- Tom RussoGardner Russo & Quinn0.0% of portfoliotrimmed
More on Oracle
Each number over time
- PE ratio
- Forward PE
- Price to sales ratio
- EV/EBIT
- Price to free cash flow
- Price to book ratio
- Dividend yield
- Market cap
- Revenue
- EPS
- Free cash flow
- Profit margin
- Shares outstanding
Where it ranks
- #3of 22Infrastructure software stocks with the fastest expected revenue growth
- #4of 21Infrastructure software stocks with the lowest forward PE
- #9of 17Infrastructure software stocks with the lowest PEG ratio
Its groups
About
- Chief executive
- Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia, since 2025Co-CEOs since September 2025. Founder Larry Ellison is chair and CTO. Source
- Founder chair
- Larry Ellison
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- Sector
- Technology
Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .