Exxon Mobil XOM

Oil & Gas Integrated, Energy

$183.21

+2.79%

Market cap: $753.3B
PE: 23.6×; 10y median 16.3×
Forward PE: 12.4×; 10y median 15.1×
Price to sales: 2.1×
EV/EBIT: 17.5×
Revenue, 12 months: $361.1B; +10% on a year ago
Net margin: 9.1%
Free cash flow yield: 4.1%

A Superworth story

Priced for a war premium that analysts expect to fade

Expensive on last year's earnings, cheap on next year's, and the gap is the oil price

6 charts, with numbers as of Oct 8, 2026

Up about 44 percent in a year
The stock rose from 114.26 a year ago to 164.05. It peaked at 171.47 on March 30. War in the Middle East cut about 6% of Exxon's output in the first quarter, yet higher oil prices more than made up for it. For Exxon's earnings, the oil price matters more than the barrels.
On past earnings, it looks expensive
The PE is about 21, higher than about three in four days of the last ten years. The ten-year median is 16.3. Ten integrated oil peers sit at a median of 16.3 too. The PE was lowest at 6.8 in July 2023, when earnings were near their peak. For an oil company a low PE often marks the top of the cycle, not a bargain.
One quarter of war prices more than tripled EPS
Revenue sat near 80 to 90 billion a quarter for two years, 83.16 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The second quarter jumped 38% to 114.53 billion, and GAAP EPS more than tripled to 3.48 from 1.00. Record Permian output helped, but a jump that size is mostly the oil price. Consensus sees revenue easing back to about 93 billion a quarter by mid 2028.
The trailing PE sits on a trough
Earnings swing with oil. TTM GAAP EPS was a loss of 3.11 a share in mid 2021 and 12.49 in mid 2023. By March 2026, the quarter the Mideast conflict shut part of Exxon's Gulf output, it was down to 5.93. One strong quarter lifted it to 7.77, but three weaker ones are still in that number, which is why the trailing PE looks high.
Cheap on next year, fair once the war fades
Consensus expects adjusted EPS of 12.32 over the next twelve months, about 13 times today's price and below the ten-year forward median near 15. The trailing PE uses GAAP EPS of 7.77, the forward PE adjusted EPS. Then it fades. The three quarters after that sum to 7.74, about 10.3 a year, near 16 times today's price. History before late September uses today's estimates, so treat it as rough.
Cash is the bull case, oil is the risk
TTM free cash flow is 30.55 billion, below 49.29 billion in mid 2022, a yield of about 4.5%. The dividend yields about 2.5%, lower than on 99% of days in ten years, and the stock is 2.6 times book value. Bulls point to Guyana's fifth floating production ship, due in late 2026. Bears point to oil falling once Hormuz reopens. We find out more on October 30, when consensus expects 3.79 a share.

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What has happened lately

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Charts

Financials

Income statement for XOM, by quarter
Income statement	Q3 FY23	Q4 FY23	Q1 FY24	Q2 FY24	Q3 FY24	Q4 FY24	Q1 FY25	Q2 FY25	Q3 FY25	Q4 FY25	Q1 FY26	Q2 FY26
	$88.6B−17%	$81.7B−12%	$80.4B−4%	$90B+11%	$87.8B−1%	$81.1B−1%	$81.1B+1%	$79.5B−12%	$83.3B−5%	$80B−1%	$83.2B+3%	$114.5B+44%
SG&A	$2.5B+7%	$2.6B−9%	$2.5B+4%	$2.6B+5%	$2.3B−8%	$2.6B+1%	$2.5B+2%	$2.5B−2%	$3B+32%	$3B+16%	$2.7B+6%	$2.5B−2%
	$11.8B−41%	$8.5B−50%	$9.9B−30%	$10.9B+10%	$11B−7%	$7.8B−8%	$9.8B−1%	$8.9B−18%	$9.2B−17%	$6B−23%	$5.3B−46%	$18.2B+104%
Interest expense	$169M−19%	$272M+31%	$221M+39%	$271M+9%	$207M+23%	$297M+9%	$205M−7%	$145M−47%	$90M−57%	$163M−45%	$295M+44%	$227M+57%
Pre-tax income	$13.7B−46%	$10.6B−44%	$12.4B−26%	$13.7B+17%	$13B−5%	$9.8B−8%	$11.6B−6%	$10.7B−22%	$10.9B−16%	$8B−18%	$7B−40%	$19.4B+81%
	$4.4B−17%	$2.6B−55%	$3.8B−23%	$4.1B+17%	$4.1B−7%	$1.9B−29%	$3.6B−6%	$3.4B−18%	$3.2B−22%	$1.4B−24%	$2.5B−30%	$4.5B+36%
Net income	$9.1B−54%	$7.6B−40%	$8.2B−28%	$9.2B+17%	$8.6B−5%	$7.6B−0%	$7.7B−6%	$7.1B−23%	$7.5B−12%	$6.5B−15%	$4.2B−46%	$14.5B+105%
	$2.25−52%	$1.91−38%	$2.06−26%	$2.14+10%	$1.92−15%	$1.72−10%	$1.76−15%	$1.64−23%	$1.76−8%	$1.53−11%	$1.00−43%	$3.48+112%
	4B−4%	4B−3%	4B−3%	4.3B+6%	4.5B+11%	4.4B+10%	4.4B+9%	4.3B+0%	4.3B−4%	4.2B−4%	4.2B−4%	4.2B−4%

Operating income: 125 periods, Q1 FY95 to Q2 FY26: not printed by the filing, worked out from its own lines.

Net income: 17 periods, Q4 FY09 to Q4 FY25: printed in the fourth-quarter results release.

EPS, diluted: 5 periods, Q1 FY98 to Q3 FY99: quarter's net income to common over its shares, to the cent. 17 periods, Q4 FY09 to Q4 FY25: printed in the fourth-quarter results release.

Diluted shares: 81 periods, Q1 FY97 to Q2 FY26: not printed by the filing, worked out from its own lines. 17 periods, Q4 FY09 to Q4 FY25: printed in the fourth-quarter results release.

From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings, the newest version of each figure. Quarters are as filed (a fourth quarter is the year less its first nine months), fiscal years as the 10-K prints them, restated where a later 10-K restated them, and balance sheet lines as of the period's end. A quarter whose 10-Q isn't filed yet is from the company's results release. Growth is on the same period a year earlier. A dash is a period with no figure for the line: the filing doesn't print it, or it hasn't been read yet.

Estimates

Next earnings report: Oct 30, 2026.

Quarter	Revenue	Range	EPS	Range	Analysts
Q3 FY26	$105.4B	$84.8B to $127.4B	$4.10	$3.34 to $4.48	12
Q4 FY26	$112.8B	$89.4B to $137.8B	$4.00	$3.32 to $4.78	11
Q1 FY27	$103.6B	$77.8B to $126.4B	$3.33	$2.25 to $4.28	4
Q2 FY27	$101.1B	$75.8B to $123.3B	$3.32	$2.24 to $4.26	4
Q3 FY27	$98.2B	$73.7B to $119.7B	$3.40	$2.29 to $4.37	7
Q4 FY27	$95.6B	$71.8B to $116.6B	$2.90	$1.96 to $3.73	4
Q1 FY28	$87.1B	$65.3B to $106.2B	$2.37	$1.60 to $3.04	5
Q2 FY28	$87.2B	$65.5B to $106.4B	$2.59	$1.75 to $3.33	6

Peers

Companies in Energy nearest Exxon Mobil's size, closest first.

Company	Market cap	PE	Its 10y median PE	Fwd PE	P/S	Revenue growth	Net margin
XOMExxon Mobil	$753.3B	23.6×	16.3×	12.4×	2.1×	+10%	9.1%
CVXChevron	$460.8B	22.4×	17.2×	12.3×	2.2×	+11%	9.9%
COPConocoPhillips	$181.2B	19.9×	12.4×	12.7×	2.9×	+10%	14.7%
MPCMarathon Petroleum	$128.4B	15.7×	11.3×	6.0×	0.8×	+15%	5.6%
VLOValero Energy	$120.7B	17.4×	13.0×	6.7×	0.9×	+13%	5.2%
PSXPhillips 66	$113B	16.2×	14.2×	7.3×	0.7×	+14%	4.7%
WMBWilliams Companies	$87.7B	28.6×	28.4×	29.5×	7.2×	+9%	25.2%
EOGEOG Resources	$85.5B	12.7×	11.7×	9.4×	3.2×	+19%	25.4%
EPDEnterprise Products Partners	$80.1B	12.9×	12.4×	12.2×	1.4×	+7%	10.8%
SLBSlb	$78.7B	25.6×	21.4×	19.0×	2.2×	+3%	8.5%
KMIKinder Morgan	$76.7B	22.1×	22.8×	23.3×	4.3×	+12%	19.3%
Peer median	$100.3B	18.7×	13.6×	12.3×	2.2×	+12%	10.3%