SuperworthWalmart WMT
- Market cap
- $951.2B
- PE
- 43.3×
- 10y median 31.6×
- Forward PE
- 39.9×
- 10y median 24.0×
- Price to sales
- 1.3×
- EV/EBIT
- 30.9×
- Revenue, 12 months
- $735.8B
- +6% on a year ago
- Net margin
- 3.0%
- Free cash flow yield
- 1.4%
A Superworth story
Priced for a fatter margin that Walmart is spending heavily to build
It costs more than on five in six days of the last decade, and the price assumes the extra spending on stores and automation pays off
Richer than its own history and its peers
Walmart costs about 43 times its last four quarters of earnings. That is richer than about five in six days of the last ten years, and far above the median of its six industry peers, about 26.
A sales miss knocked it down, an inflation call helped lift it
It peaked in mid-May, and a month ago sat about a fifth below that high. In August, US comparable sales (stores open at least a year) grew 2.6% against 3.5% expected, with drug price caps costing almost a point. Walmart is putting tariff refunds into lower prices. It has won back part of the drop since, helped by a Deutsche Bank upgrade. So the price leans hard on growth coming through.
The price has run far ahead of sales
Revenue over four quarters rose about 15% in three years, while the share price more than doubled. Growth is picking up, though. Sales rose 6.2% in the latest year, the fastest in nearly three years.
The bull case is a richer mix of income
Measured on sales, Walmart costs almost double its ten-year median. The bull case is the mix. In the July quarter advertising grew 38% and membership fees 17%. Ads and fees cost little to deliver, so each dollar of them adds more profit than a dollar of groceries.
Profit is growing, the cash left over is not
Free cash flow is the cash left after spending on stores, warehouses and machines. Over four quarters it is about 13.5 billion dollars, barely more than three years ago, while profit rose by more than a third and that spending kept climbing. That is the fear: a stock priced for growth that is paying for it up front. On that cash, the stock yields about 1.4%, a third of its ten-year median.
The bet is a fatter margin
Walmart keeps a little over four cents of operating profit (what is left after the cost of goods and of running the business) from each dollar of sales, barely above its ten-year norm. The price assumes that number rises. Analysts see little of it in the next twelve months. In the twelve after, they see adjusted earnings (without one-off items) up about 14% on sales up about 5%.
Even expected earnings don't make it cheap
The question is whether ads, fees and automation can lift earnings that fast. On the adjusted earnings expected over the next twelve months, Walmart costs about 40 times, and about 35 times on the twelve after. The first test is next month's report, where analysts expect the October quarter to earn just two cents a share more, adjusted, than a year earlier.
What has happened lately
- CNBC, Walmart upgraded by Deutsche Bank as inflation attracts more customersDeutsche Bank raised its rating on Walmart, arguing that rising prices strengthen its value appeal and speed share gains, with margins helped by ads, fees and automation. The shares rose on the day.
- CNBC, CPI inflation report for September 2026Consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier in September, above forecasts, with gasoline the biggest driver. Deutsche Bank's case for Walmart the next day rested on this kind of inflation.
- SEC, Walmart reports second quarter resultsRevenue rose 5.9% to 187.9 billion dollars, advertising grew 38% and membership fees 17%. Tariff refunds lifted operating income, and Walmart is putting the rest into prices. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance rose to 2.80 to 2.87.
- CNBC, Walmart stock tumbles 9% after outlook disappoints Wall StreetUS comparable sales grew 2.6%, short of the 3.5% analysts expected, with drug price caps cutting 0.8 points, and the shares closed about 9% lower despite the raised guidance.
Headlines link to the original source.
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Charts
Financials
| Income statement | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 | Q2 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160.8B+5% | $173.4B+6% | $161.5B+6% | $169.3B+5% | $169.6B+6% | $180.6B+4% | $165.6B+3% | $177.4B+5% | $179.5B+6% | $190.7B+6% | $177.8B+7% | $187.9B+6% | |
| Cost of revenue | $121.2B+5% | $131.8B+5% | $121.4B+5% | $126.8B+4% | $127.3B+5% | $136.2B+3% | $124.3B+2% | $132.8B+5% | $134.7B+6% | $143.6B+6% | $133.1B+7% | $138.8B+5% |
| Gross profit | $39.6B+7% | $41.6B+8% | $40.1B+8% | $42.5B+7% | $42.2B+7% | $44.4B+7% | $41.3B+3% | $44.6B+5% | $44.8B+6% | $47B+6% | $44.7B+8% | $49.1B+10% |
| SG&A | $33.4B−3% | $34.3B+4% | $33.2B+8% | $34.6B+7% | $35.5B+6% | $36.5B+7% | $34.2B+3% | $37.3B+8% | $38.1B+7% | $38.3B+5% | $37.2B+9% | $39.8B+6% |
| $6.2B+130% | $7.3B+30% | $6.8B+10% | $7.9B+9% | $6.7B+8% | $7.9B+8% | $7.1B+4% | $7.3B−8% | $6.7B−0% | $8.7B+11% | $7.5B+5% | $9.4B+29% | |
| Interest expense | $682M+17% | $695M+14% | $714M+8% | $679M+6% | $618M−9% | $717M+3% | $637M−11% | $769M+13% | $684M+11% | $709M−1% | $699M+10% | $263M−66% |
| Pre-tax income | $915M | $7.5B−16% | $7B+162% | $6.2B−42% | $6.1B+566% | $7B−7% | $6B−15% | $9.3B+50% | $8.2B+34% | $6B−14% | $7.1B+19% | $8B−14% |
| $272M−19% | $1.8B−41% | $1.7B+118% | $1.5B−44% | $1.4B+409% | $1.5B−16% | $1.4B−22% | $2.2B+44% | $2.1B+52% | $1.6B+3% | $1.7B+22% | $1.5B−32% | |
| Net income | $453M | $5.5B−12% | $5.1B+205% | $4.5B−43% | $4.6B+910% | $5.3B−4% | $4.5B−12% | $7B+56% | $6.1B+34% | $4.2B−19% | $5.3B+19% | $6.4B−9% |
| $0.06 | $0.68−12% | $0.63+200% | $0.56−42% | $0.57+850% | $0.65−4% | $0.56−11% | $0.88+57% | $0.77+35% | $0.53−19% | $0.67+20% | $0.80−9% | |
| 8.1B−0% | 8.1B−0% | 8.1B−0% | 8.1B−0% | 8.1B−0% | 8.1B−0% | 8.1B−0% | 8B−1% | 8B−1% | 8B−1% | 8B−1% | 8B−1% |
Gross profit: 129 periods, Q1 FY95 to Q2 FY27: not printed by the filing, worked out from its own lines.
Operating income: 30 periods, Q1 FY95 to Q4 FY02: not printed by the filing, worked out from its own lines.
Net income: 6 periods, Q4 FY21 to Q4 FY26: printed in the fourth-quarter results release.
EPS, diluted: 14 periods, Q4 FY00 to Q4 FY24: quarter's net income to common over its shares, to the cent. 5 periods, Q4 FY21 to Q4 FY26: printed in the fourth-quarter results release.
Diluted shares: Q4 FY98: not printed by the filing, worked out from its own lines. 22 periods, Q4 FY99 to Q4 FY24: share-days: the 12-month average less the 9-month, weighted by days. 6 periods, Q4 FY10 to Q4 FY26: printed in the fourth-quarter results release.
From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings, the newest version of each figure. Quarters are as filed (a fourth quarter is the year less its first nine months), fiscal years as the 10-K prints them, restated where a later 10-K restated them, and balance sheet lines as of the period's end. A quarter whose 10-Q isn't filed yet is from the company's results release. Growth is on the same period a year earlier. A dash is a period with no figure for the line: the filing doesn't print it, or it hasn't been read yet.
Estimates
Next earnings report: .
| Quarter | Revenue | Range | EPS | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY27 | $187.3B | $186.1B to $188.9B | $0.64 | $0.62 to $0.66 | 23 |
| Q4 FY27 | $200.5B | $197.4B to $202.3B | $0.78 | $0.76 to $0.82 | 23 |
| Q1 FY28 | $185.5B | $182.6B to $187.9B | $0.74 | $0.72 to $0.75 | 10 |
| Q2 FY28 | $196.4B | $193.4B to $199B | $0.84 | $0.83 to $0.86 | 10 |
| Q3 FY28 | $195.8B | $192.7B to $198.3B | $0.76 | $0.74 to $0.77 | 10 |
| Q4 FY28 | $209.4B | $206.2B to $212.1B | $0.89 | $0.87 to $0.91 | 18 |
| Q1 FY29 | $195.2B | $192.1B to $197.7B | $0.83 | $0.81 to $0.84 | 18 |
| Q2 FY29 | $207.6B | $204.4B to $210.3B | $0.95 | $0.93 to $0.97 | 20 |
Peers
Companies in Consumer Defensive nearest Walmart's size, closest first.
| Company | Market cap | PE | Its 10y median PE | Fwd PE | P/S | Revenue growth | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMTWalmart | $951.2B | 43.3× | 31.6× | 39.9× | 1.3× | +6% | 3.0% |
| COSTCostco Wholesale | $444.6B | 48.3× | 38.7× | 44.0× | 1.5× | +10% | 3.0% |
| KOCoca-Cola | $398.9B | 27.8× | 27.8× | 27.3× | 8.0× | +7% | 28.6% |
| PGProcter & Gamble | $374.3B | 24.3× | 25.2× | 23.3× | 4.3× | +4% | 18.2% |
| PMPhilip Morris International | $310.9B | 29.1× | 18.5× | 22.2× | 7.2× | +8% | 24.8% |
| PEPPepsiCo | $185B | 17.1× | 25.9× | 16.0× | 1.9× | +6% | 11.1% |
| MOAltria | $124.1B | 15.7× | 13.1× | 12.9× | 6.1× | +1% | 39.0% |
| Peer median | $342.6B | 26.0× | 25.5× | 22.8× | 5.2× | +6% | 21.5% |
Investors who own it
Investors we follow who held Walmart at the end of Jun 30, 2026, from their 13F filings.
- Tom RussoGardner Russo & Quinn0.0% of portfoliotrimmed
- Bill NygrenHarris Associates (Oakmark)0.0% of portfolioadded
More on Walmart
Each number over time
- PE ratio
- Forward PE
- Price to sales ratio
- EV/EBIT
- Price to free cash flow
- Price to book ratio
- Dividend yield
- Market cap
- Revenue
- EPS
- Free cash flow
- Profit margin
- Shares outstanding
Where it ranks
Its groups
About
- Chief executive
- John Furner, since 2026Joined as an hourly associate in 1993, CEO since February 2026. Source
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .