SuperworthEli Lilly and LLY
- Market cap
- $1.2T
- PE
- 42.7×
- 10y median 41.4×
- Forward PE
- 33.9×
- 10y median 28.3×
- Price to sales
- 15.0×
- EV/EBIT
- 35.7×
- Revenue, 12 months
- $79.7B
- +50% on a year ago
- Net margin
- 33.5%
- Free cash flow yield
- 1.5%
A Superworth story
Lilly's earnings caught up to its price
A stock that doubled while its PE fell by more than two thirds
In 2024 the price ran far ahead of earnings
In July 2024 the PE reached 140, its highest in five years. The price was a bet that Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly's diabetes and obesity drugs, would keep growing fast. Since then, earnings have grown into much of that price.
Revenue went up two and a half times
From 32 billion to 80 billion dollars in three years. Obesity and diabetes treatment turned into one of the fastest revenue ramps a large drug company has ever had.
Earnings went up five and a half times
Over the last twelve months Lilly earned 29.80 dollars a share, up from 5.42 three years ago. Drug manufacturing has high fixed costs, so once volume clears them, profit grows far faster than sales. Operating margin reached 49.7 percent, the highest in ten years.
Free cash flow sank to zero, then took off
Twelve-month free cash flow was about 3.3 billion dollars three years ago. In early 2024 it briefly fell to minus 90 million, as building new factories used up almost all the cash the business made. It is now 18.2 billion.
The stock doubled and got cheaper
Market value doubled in three years while the PE fell to about 39. That is lower than on more than nine in ten days of the last five years, but close to its ten-year median. The stock now sits about 10% below its August 19 high.
On sales, it costs more than most of the decade
The PE looks low mainly against the last five years, when it ran far higher. Price to sales, the stock's value over a year of revenue, gives the longer view. At about 14 times revenue, Lilly costs more than on about 70% of days in the last ten years, where the median was about 9. Wider margins explain part of that.
The price assumes the growth keeps going
At about 28 times expected earnings for the next twelve months, Lilly sits near its ten-year median, but its seven industry peers trade at a median of about 17. Analysts expect adjusted earnings per share to rise about a third, which needs Mounjaro, Zepbound and the oral pill Foundayo to keep growing. Earlier forward PE is rebuilt from today's estimates. The October 29 report is the first test.
What has happened lately
- Eli Lilly, Lilly's oral GLP-1 Foundayo meets cardiovascular safety goal in its largest type 2 diabetes trialACHIEVE-4 in 2,749 patients showed non-inferior heart risk versus insulin glargine, clearing a safety hurdle for the oral pill Lilly is counting on for broad diabetes use.
- Eli Lilly, FDA approves Lilly's Onswik, a once-weekly basal insulin for adults with type 2 diabetesAdds a new diabetes product expected in the U.S. in the coming months, extending Lilly's cardiometabolic franchise beyond incretins into basal insulin.
- Eli Lilly, FDA approves Mounjaro to reduce cardiovascular risk in adults with type 2 diabetesAdds a heart-protection claim to Lilly's largest diabetes drug, based on a 13,299-patient trial with an 8% lower event rate than Trulicity, which can support coverage.
- Eli Lilly, Lilly reports second-quarter revenue of $23.0 billion, up 48%, and raises full-year guidanceFull-year revenue guidance moved to $85B-$87B, while non-GAAP EPS guidance was trimmed at the top end on acquisition-related charges.
Headlines link to the original source.
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Charts
Financials
| Income statement | Q3 FY23 | Q4 FY23 | Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $9.5B+37% | $9.4B+28% | $8.8B+26% | $11.3B+36% | $11.4B+20% | $13.5B+45% | $12.7B+45% | $15.6B+38% | $17.6B+54% | $19.3B+43% | $19.8B+56% | $23B+48% | |
| Cost of revenue | $1.9B+18% | $1.8B+16% | $1.7B+3% | $2.2B+20% | $2.2B+17% | $2.4B+34% | $2.2B+33% | $2.4B+13% | $3B+39% | $3.4B+40% | $3.6B+61% | $3.3B+34% |
| Gross profit | $7.6B+42% | $7.6B+32% | $7.1B+33% | $9.1B+40% | $9.3B+21% | $11.1B+47% | $10.5B+48% | $13.1B+44% | $14.6B+57% | $15.9B+43% | $16.2B+54% | $19.7B+50% |
| R&D | $2.4B+34% | $2.6B+28% | $2.5B+27% | $2.7B+15% | $2.7B+14% | $3B+18% | $2.7B+8% | $3.3B+23% | $3.5B+27% | $3.8B+26% | $3.5B+28% | $3.8B+15% |
| SG&A | $1.8B+12% | $1.9B+17% | $2B+12% | $2.1B+10% | $2.1B+16% | $2.4B+26% | $2.5B+26% | $2.8B+30% | $2.7B+31% | $3.1B+29% | $2.9B+19% | $3.4B+25% |
| $450.4M−73% | $2.4B+30% | $2.5B+68% | $3.7B+75% | $1.5B+239% | $5.1B+116% | $3.7B+47% | $6.9B+85% | $7.4B+383% | $8.4B+63% | $8.9B+141% | $9B+31% | |
| Interest expense | $124.6M+53% | $138.2M+65% | $179.6M+75% | $183.6M+53% | $192.7M+55% | $224.7M+63% | $243.7M+36% | $249M+36% | $179.6M−7% | $222.6M−1% | n/a | n/a |
| Pre-tax income | $427.2M−73% | $2.5B+20% | $2.5B+66% | $3.5B+68% | $1.6B+272% | $5B+101% | $3.5B+36% | $6.8B+93% | $7.2B+355% | $8.3B+64% | $8.8B+156% | $9.2B+36% |
| $484.6M+326% | $319.1M+101% | $293.2M+59% | $550.2M+69% | $618.1M+28% | $628.9M+97% | $696.8M+138% | $1.1B+103% | $1.6B+167% | $1.6B+159% | $1.5B+109% | $2.2B+93% | |
| Net income | −$57.4M | $2.2B+13% | $2.2B+67% | $3B+68% | $970.3M | $4.4B+101% | $2.8B+23% | $5.7B+91% | $5.6B+475% | $6.6B+51% | $7.4B+168% | $7.1B+25% |
| −$0.06 | $2.42+13% | $2.48+66% | $3.28+68% | $1.07 | $4.88+102% | $3.06+23% | $6.29+92% | $6.21+480% | $7.39+51% | $8.26+170% | $7.94+26% | |
| 899.8M−0% | 904M−0% | 903.8M+0% | 904.2M+0% | 905M+1% | 903.2M−0% | 900.6M−0% | 899.8M−1% | 898.8M−1% | 898M−1% | 895.9M−1% | 893.7M−1% |
Gross profit: 126 periods, Q1 FY95 to Q2 FY26: not printed by the filing, worked out from its own lines.
Operating income: 126 periods, Q1 FY95 to Q2 FY26: not printed by the filing, worked out from its own lines.
Net income: 10 periods, Q4 FY09 to Q4 FY25: printed in the fourth-quarter results release.
EPS, diluted: 9 periods, Q4 FY95 to Q4 FY08: quarter's net income to common over its shares, to the cent, the shares from counts implied by EPS, near the year's EPS less the nine months'. 10 periods, Q4 FY09 to Q4 FY25: printed in the fourth-quarter results release. 3 periods, Q4 FY17 to Q4 FY19: quarter's net income to common over its shares, to the cent.
Diluted shares: 46 periods, Q1 FY95 to Q3 FY12: not printed by the filing, worked out from its own lines. 10 periods, Q4 FY09 to Q4 FY25: printed in the fourth-quarter results release. 6 periods, Q4 FY13 to Q4 FY19: share-days: the 12-month average less the 9-month, weighted by days. Q4 FY17: a loss quarter: its basic count, share-days: the 12-month average less the 9-month, weighted by days.
From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings, the newest version of each figure. Quarters are as filed (a fourth quarter is the year less its first nine months), fiscal years as the 10-K prints them, restated where a later 10-K restated them, and balance sheet lines as of the period's end. A quarter whose 10-Q isn't filed yet is from the company's results release. Growth is on the same period a year earlier. A dash is a period with no figure for the line: the filing doesn't print it, or it hasn't been read yet.
Estimates
Next earnings report: .
| Quarter | Revenue | Range | EPS | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY26 | $22.6B | $21.3B to $23.8B | $5.70 | $5.61 to $5.80 | 10 |
| Q4 FY26 | $23.6B | $22.9B to $24.9B | $10.14 | $9.60 to $11.11 | 10 |
| Q1 FY27 | $22.8B | $21.8B to $24.1B | $10.13 | $9.55 to $10.85 | 8 |
| Q2 FY27 | $25.5B | $24.4B to $26.9B | $11.63 | $10.96 to $12.46 | 8 |
| Q3 FY27 | $25.6B | $24.5B to $27B | $12.22 | $11.53 to $13.09 | 8 |
| Q4 FY27 | $27.3B | $26.1B to $28.8B | $13.29 | $12.53 to $14.24 | 8 |
Peers
Companies in Drug Manufacturers - General nearest Eli Lilly and's size, closest first.
| Company | Market cap | PE | Its 10y median PE | Fwd PE | P/S | Revenue growth | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLYEli Lilly and | $1.2T | 42.7× | 41.4× | 33.9× | 15.0× | +50% | 33.5% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | $635.8B | 40.0× | 24.3× | 23.4× | 6.4× | +8% | n/m |
| ABBVAbbVie | $504.8B | 80.7× | 27.9× | 19.0× | 7.8× | +10% | 9.8% |
| MRKMerck | $358.4B | 116× | 24.9× | 17.5× | 5.4× | +5% | 4.8% |
| AMGNAmgen | $237.5B | 27.3× | 21.1× | 18.6× | 6.2× | +9% | 23.0% |
| GILDGilead Sciences | $193.5B | n/m | 18.8× | 17.2× | 6.4× | +6% | −10.6% |
| PFEPfizer | $171.2B | 39.5× | 15.8× | 10.9× | 2.7× | −0% | 6.8% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb | $125.6B | 13.5× | 19.9× | 10.4× | 2.6× | +3% | 18.9% |
| Peer median | $237.5B | 39.7× | 21.1× | 17.5× | 6.2× | +6% | 8.3% |
Investors who own it
Investors we follow who held Eli Lilly and at the end of Jun 30, 2026, from their 13F filings.
- Polen CapitalPolen Capital6.9% of portfoliotrimmed
- Cathie WoodARK Investment Management0.6% of portfolioadded
- Stanley DruckenmillerDuquesne Family Office0.3% of portfolionew
- Ron BaronBaron Capital0.3% of portfolioadded
- Bill NygrenHarris Associates (Oakmark)0.0% of portfoliotrimmed
More on Eli Lilly and
Each number over time
- PE ratio
- Forward PE
- Price to sales ratio
- EV/EBIT
- Price to free cash flow
- Price to book ratio
- Dividend yield
- Market cap
- Revenue
- EPS
- Free cash flow
- Profit margin
- Shares outstanding
Where it ranks
- #8of 84Large drugmakers with the highest profit margins
- #7of 53Healthcare stocks with the fastest expected revenue growth
- #5of 25Large drugmakers with the fastest earnings growth
- #10of 17Large drugmakers cheapest against their own PE history
Its groups
About
- Chief executive
- Dave Ricks, since 2017Joined 1996, CEO since 2017. Source
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - General
- Sector
- Healthcare
Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .