SuperworthTesla TSLA
- Market cap
- $1.5T
- PE
- 409×
- 5y median 112×
- Forward PE
- 184×
- 10y median 109×
- Price to sales
- 14.2×
- EV/EBIT
- n/m
- a quarter missing
- Revenue, 12 months
- $103.6B
- +8% on a year ago
- Net margin
- n/m
- Q3 FY26 missing
- Free cash flow yield
- 0.2%
A Superworth story
Tesla's price stopped following its profits
Reported profits fell by two thirds and the stock rose by nearly half, while sales turned up and cash flow tripled
Revenue sat flat for two and a half years, then turned
Revenue over the last twelve months barely moved for two and a half years. In the year to June it grew 11.8% to 103.6 billion dollars, the fastest since 2023.
Reported earnings fell by two thirds
Reported earnings per share over the last twelve months fell from 3.11 to 1.08 dollars. A one-off tax gain in late 2023 inflates the middle of the chart. Both ends of the drop exclude it, so the comparison is fair. Tesla's adjusted figure, which leaves out stock pay and some other items, fell less, by about a quarter since mid 2024.
Gross margin held, spending took the profit
Gross margin, what Tesla keeps from sales after the cost of making its products, has held in a narrow band. Operating margin fell from 8.2% at the end of 2023 to 1.4% in the June quarter. That quarter brought record second-quarter deliveries and revenue up by about a quarter, yet the thinnest margin in three years. Tesla names AI and other research, stock pay and overhead among the costs.
And yet the market value rose by nearly half
Tesla is worth about 1.5 trillion dollars, nearly half more than three years ago. The path swung hard, from a peak in December 2025 to this year's low in late July. That low came on the same day US regulators opened a probe into suspension parts on about 1.2 million of its two mass-market models. A recall at that scale would be a material warranty cost.
The price now assumes a different company
On reported earnings the stock costs about 350 times, about 17 times the peer median on the same basis. The market is valuing a car business with a thin margin as if it were something else. At a peer-like multiple, today's earnings would support less than a tenth of the price. Investors appear to be paying for robotaxis and storage, businesses that barely show in the profits yet.
The cash is real, but spending just jumped
Free cash flow over the last twelve months is still 5.76 billion dollars, more than triple its mid 2024 level. The June quarter alone was negative, by 1.1 billion, because capital spending more than doubled from a year earlier. If spending stays this high, the twelve-month figure will shrink.
Even the forecast recovery leaves it far above its peers
Analysts expect adjusted earnings to rise about a fifth over the next twelve months, to 2.08 dollars a share. That still leaves the stock about eight times its peers. Forward PE before late September is rebuilt from today's estimates. Third-quarter results come this month, with 46 cents expected. The bigger test is a federal audit of how Tesla certified the Cybercab robotaxi. The price rests on that, not earnings.
What has happened lately
- Tesla (SEC filing), Tesla delivers 486,532 vehicles in Q3 2026 and deploys 13.7 GWh of energy storageDeliveries ran about 2% below the 497,099 of a year earlier. Storage rose to 13.7 GWh from 12.5 GWh in Q3 2025 (per Tesla's Q2 2026 update). This sets the base for Q3 results due October 21.
- NHTSA, NHTSA opens audit of Tesla's self-certification of the Cybercab to federal safety standardsRegulators are examining the basis on which Tesla certified a vehicle with no steering wheel, pedals or mirrors, a gating step for the robotaxi rollout.
- NHTSA, NHTSA opens investigation into suspension link detachment on 1.2 million Tesla vehiclesThe probe covers an estimated 1,198,300 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles after 156 complaints, a recall at that scale would be a material warranty cost.
- SEC, Tesla Q2 2026 results: revenue up 26% to $28.2B, GAAP operating income $0.4BRecord second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 lifted revenue 26%, but operating income fell to $0.4B. Capex rose to $5.8B from $2.4B a year earlier, and free cash flow was negative $1.1B.
Headlines link to the original source.
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Charts
Financials
| Income statement | Q4 FY23 | Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25.2B+4% | $21.3B−9% | $25.5B+2% | $25.2B+8% | $25.7B+2% | $19.3B−9% | $22.5B−12% | $28.1B+12% | $24.9B−3% | $22.4B+16% | $28.2B+26% | $28B−0% | |
| Cost of revenue | $20.7B+12% | $17.6B−6% | $20.9B+3% | $20.2B+5% | $21.5B+4% | $16.2B−8% | $18.6B−11% | $23B+14% | $19.9B−8% | $17.7B+9% | $23.5B+26% | $22.6B−2% |
| Gross profit | $4.4B−23% | $3.7B−18% | $4.6B+1% | $5B+20% | $4.2B−6% | $3.2B−15% | $3.9B−15% | $5.1B+1% | $5B+20% | $4.7B+50% | $4.8B+23% | $5.5B+9% |
| R&D | $1.1B+35% | $1.2B+49% | $1.1B+14% | $1B−11% | $1.3B+17% | $1.4B+22% | $1.6B+48% | $1.6B+57% | $1.8B+40% | $1.9B+38% | $2.4B+49% | $2.8B+69% |
| SG&A | $1.3B+24% | $1.4B+28% | $1.3B+7% | $1.2B−5% | $1.3B+3% | $1.3B−9% | $1.4B+7% | $1.6B+32% | $1.7B+26% | $1.8B+47% | $2B+45% | $2B+29% |
| $2.1B−47% | $1.2B−56% | $1.6B−33% | $2.7B+54% | $1.6B−23% | $399M−66% | $923M−43% | $1.6B−40% | $1.4B−11% | $941M+136% | $398M−57% | n/a | |
| Interest expense | $61M+85% | $76M+162% | $86M+207% | $92M+142% | $96M+57% | $91M+20% | $86M+0% | $76M−17% | $85M−12% | $92M+1% | $81M−6% | n/a |
| Pre-tax income | $2.2B−45% | $1.9B−33% | $1.8B−39% | $2.8B+37% | $2.5B+15% | $589M−69% | $1.5B−13% | $2B−30% | $1.2B−53% | $748M+27% | $1.3B−14% | n/a |
| −$5.8B | $483M+85% | $371M+15% | $602M+261% | $381M | $169M−65% | $359M−3% | $570M−5% | $325M−15% | $257M+52% | $201M−44% | n/a | |
| Net income | $7.9B+115% | $1.4B−45% | $1.4B−48% | $2.2B+17% | $2.1B−73% | $409M−71% | $1.2B−16% | $1.4B−37% | $840M−61% | $477M+17% | $1.1B−5% | n/a |
| $2.27+112% | $0.41−44% | $0.40−49% | $0.62+17% | $0.60−74% | $0.12−71% | $0.33−18% | $0.39−37% | $0.24−60% | $0.13+8% | $0.32−3% | $0.22−44% | |
| 3.5B+0% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+0% | 3.5B+0% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+0% |
Net income: 4 periods, Q4 FY11 to Q4 FY25: printed in the fourth-quarter results release. Q4 FY24: the year less its other three quarters as the newest filings print them.
EPS, diluted: 12 periods, Q4 FY10 to Q4 FY24: quarter's net income to common over its shares, to the cent. 3 periods, Q4 FY11 to Q4 FY25: printed in the fourth-quarter results release.
Diluted shares: 6 periods, Q4 FY10 to Q4 FY17: a loss quarter: its basic count, share-days: the 12-month average less the 9-month, weighted by days. 5 periods, Q4 FY11 to Q4 FY25: printed in the fourth-quarter results release. 5 periods, Q4 FY18 to Q4 FY22: share-days: the 12-month average less the 9-month, weighted by days.
From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings, the newest version of each figure. Quarters are as filed (a fourth quarter is the year less its first nine months), fiscal years as the 10-K prints them, restated where a later 10-K restated them, and balance sheet lines as of the period's end. A quarter whose 10-Q isn't filed yet is from the company's results release. Growth is on the same period a year earlier. A dash is a period with no figure for the line: the filing doesn't print it, or it hasn't been read yet. Figures from older filings without data tags, and from a results release before its 10-Q, are read from the document's text and checked against it.
Estimates
Next earnings report: .
| Quarter | Revenue | Range | EPS | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY26 | $28.5B | $25.3B to $32.6B | $0.43 | $0.29 to $0.71 | 19 |
| Q1 FY27 | $26.6B | $25.8B to $27.4B | $0.45 | $0.23 to $0.52 | 9 |
| Q2 FY27 | $30.7B | $28.4B to $35.3B | $0.55 | $0.49 to $0.65 | 3 |
| Q3 FY27 | $32.1B | $29.7B to $36.9B | $0.59 | $0.54 to $0.71 | 3 |
| Q4 FY27 | $33.8B | $31.2B to $38.8B | $0.60 | $0.54 to $0.72 | 6 |
| Q1 FY28 | $35.1B | $32.5B to $40.4B | $0.91 | $0.82 to $1.09 | 8 |
| Q2 FY28 | $39.9B | $36.9B to $45.8B | $0.98 | $0.88 to $1.17 | 4 |
| Q3 FY28 | $44.3B | $40.9B to $50.9B | $1.00 | $0.91 to $1.20 | 5 |
Peers
Companies in Consumer Cyclical nearest Tesla's size, closest first.
| Company | Market cap | PE | Its 10y median PE | Fwd PE | P/S | Revenue growth | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla | $1.5T | 409× | 112× | 184× | 14.2× | +8% | n/m |
| AMZNAmazon.com | $2.7T | 20.0× | 79.0× | 26.5× | 3.4× | +16% | 17.4% |
| HDHome Depot | $319.1B | 22.4× | 23.3× | 20.8× | 1.9× | +2% | 8.4% |
| MCDMcDonald's | $175.8B | 20.2× | 26.0× | 18.9× | 6.3× | +6% | 31.7% |
| TJXTJX Companies | $159.6B | 26.8× | 26.1× | 26.8× | 2.6× | +8% | 9.7% |
| Peer median | $247.5B | 21.3× | 26.1× | 23.6× | 3.0× | +7% | 13.6% |
Investors who own it
Investors we follow who held Tesla at the end of Jun 30, 2026, from their 13F filings.
- Ron BaronBaron Capital7.9% of portfolioadded
- Cathie WoodARK Investment Management7.5% of portfoliotrimmed
- Gavin BakerAtreides Management0.8% of portfolioadded
- Andreas HalvorsenViking Global Investors0.7% of portfoliotrimmed
- Dan SundheimD1 Capital Partners0.5% of portfolionew
- Baillie GiffordBaillie Gifford0.3% of portfoliotrimmed
- Philippe LaffontCoatue Management0.1% of portfolioadded
- Polen CapitalPolen Capital0.0% of portfolioadded
More on Tesla
Each number over time
- PE ratio
- Forward PE
- Price to sales ratio
- EV/EBIT
- Price to free cash flow
- Price to book ratio
- Market cap
- Revenue
- EPS
- Free cash flow
- Profit margin
- Shares outstanding
Where it ranks
Its groups
About
- Chief executive
- Elon Musk, since 2008FounderLegally recognised co-founder since a 2009 settlement, CEO since 2008. Source
- Industry
- Auto - Manufacturers
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .