Superworth

SpaceX SPCX

Aerospace & Defense, Industrials
$147.49
+1.89%
Market cap
$1.9T
PE
n/m
one or more of the four quarters through 2026-09-30 missing
Forward PE
43.0×
Price to sales
n/m
one or more of the four quarters through 2026-09-30 missing
EV/EBIT
n/m
not a meaningful number
Revenue, 12 months
n/m
one or more of the four quarters through 2026-09-30 missing
Net margin
n/m
one or more of the four quarters through 2026-09-30 missing
Free cash flow yield
n/m
not a meaningful number

A Superworth story

Priced for a revenue ramp it has only begun to show

Priced at over three times its peers on the coming year's consensus earnings, while only Starlink makes money and spending runs far ahead of cash.

6 charts, with numbers as of

  1. Investors loved it, then took fright

    SpaceX listed in June and within days reached 201.80. By early August it had nearly halved, to 108.27. Two things hit at once: its first earnings report showed spending soaring, and about a hundred billion dollars of insider shares became free to sell. It has since won back about half of the drop.

  2. Revenue nearly doubled in a year

    The ramp has begun. Second-quarter revenue grew 92% from a year earlier, close to double. Starlink, the satellite internet service, brought in more than half of it, about 4.3 billion dollars.

  3. Close to break-even, but only Starlink makes money

    Operating margin climbed from a deep loss in the first quarter to minus 1.8% in the second, close to break-even. Starlink made money, while the AI business (xAI, X and cloud deals) lost 1.3 billion dollars and the space business (launches and Starship) also lost money.

  4. Spending more than twice what it sells

    In the second quarter SpaceX spent 18.37 billion dollars on buildings and equipment, 15.83 billion of it on AI, more than twice its revenue. Free cash flow, the cash left after that spending, was deeply negative, and the shares fell after hours. Yet revenue beat forecasts and Starlink's profit pays for part of the loss. The fear is a bill that lands long before AI revenue. The bet is that it pays back fast.

  5. Over three times its peers on consensus earnings

    At about 101 times consensus earnings for the next twelve months (the September quarter, ended but not yet reported, through next June), SpaceX costs over three times its peers' median of 31.6. If the ramp holds, the multiple on the year after roughly halves. Today's reading sits a little below its median since listing, a short history partly rebuilt from today's estimates.

  6. The price needs sales to keep jumping

    Analysts expect 12.86 billion dollars of revenue for the September quarter, two thirds above June, on the way to a promised yearly pace of a hundred billion dollars by December. Their December forecasts vary widely, the top one over half again the lowest. With the company valued at 26 times its expected sales over the next year, a hit keeps the ramp alive. A miss tests a stock at about a hundred times earnings.

1 of 6

What has happened lately

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Charts

Financials

Income statement for SPCX, by quarter
Income statementQ1 FY25Q2 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26
$4.1B$4.1B$4.7B$7.8B
Cost of revenue$2B$2.3B$2.4B$3.5B
Gross profit$2.1B$1.8B$2.3B$4.3B
R&D$1.6B$2B$3.5B$3.5B
SG&A$493M$606M$746M$912M
$27M−$970M−$1.9B−$143M
Interest expense$447M$411M$664M$629M
Pre-tax income−$514M−$870M−$4.3B−$518M
$14M$138M$6M$23M
Net income−$528M−$1B−$4.3B−$541M
−$0.18−$0.34−$1.27−$0.09
2.9B2.9B3.9B5.9B

Revenue: Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26: printed in the IPO prospectus (424B4 0001628280-26-042639, filed 2026-06-12).

Cost of revenue: Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26: printed in the IPO prospectus (424B4 0001628280-26-042639, filed 2026-06-12).

Gross profit: 4 periods, Q1 FY25 to Q2 FY26: not printed by the filing, worked out from its own lines.

R&D: Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26: printed in the IPO prospectus (424B4 0001628280-26-042639, filed 2026-06-12).

SG&A: Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26: printed in the IPO prospectus (424B4 0001628280-26-042639, filed 2026-06-12).

Operating income: Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26: printed in the IPO prospectus (424B4 0001628280-26-042639, filed 2026-06-12).

Interest expense: Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26: printed in the IPO prospectus (424B4 0001628280-26-042639, filed 2026-06-12).

Pre-tax income: Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26: printed in the IPO prospectus (424B4 0001628280-26-042639, filed 2026-06-12).

Income tax: Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26: printed in the IPO prospectus (424B4 0001628280-26-042639, filed 2026-06-12).

Net income: Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26: printed in the IPO prospectus (424B4 0001628280-26-042639, filed 2026-06-12).

EPS, diluted: Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26: printed in the IPO prospectus (424B4 0001628280-26-042639, filed 2026-06-12).

Diluted shares: Q1 FY25 and Q1 FY26: printed in the IPO prospectus (424B4 0001628280-26-042639, filed 2026-06-12).

From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings, the newest version of each figure. Quarters are as filed (a fourth quarter is the year less its first nine months), fiscal years as the 10-K prints them, restated where a later 10-K restated them, and balance sheet lines as of the period's end. A quarter whose 10-Q isn't filed yet is from the company's results release. Growth is on the same period a year earlier. A dash is a period with no figure for the line: the filing doesn't print it, or it hasn't been read yet.

Estimates

Next earnings report: .

QuarterRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
Q3 FY26$12.9B$10.9B to $14.1B$0.13−$0.04 to $0.3213
Q4 FY26$22.4B$18.3B to $25.3B$0.41$0.10 to $0.8714
Q1 FY27$31.3B$30.1B to $32.6B$0.77$0.18 to $1.2910
Q2 FY27$38.4B$34B to $41.2B$1.00$0.85 to $1.098
Q3 FY27$46.4B$41.1B to $49.8B$1.27$1.08 to $1.398
Q4 FY27$54.4B$48.2B to $58.4B$1.63$1.38 to $1.788
Q1 FY28$45.9B$40.6B to $49.3B$1.27$1.08 to $1.399
Q2 FY28$54.5B$48.3B to $58.5B$1.69$1.44 to $1.859

Peers

Companies in Industrials nearest SpaceX's size, closest first.

CompanyMarket capPEIts 10y median PEFwd PEP/SRevenue growthNet margin
SPCXSpaceX$1.9Tn/mn/a43.0×n/mn/mn/m
CATCaterpillar$315.8B29.6×18.7×24.1×4.2×+18%14.5%
GEGE Aerospace$296.4B32.5×19.6×32.2×5.6×+20%17.5%
RTXRTX$257.4B31.0×28.9×24.7×2.7×+12%n/m
GEVGE Vernova$217.1B23.3×56.3×39.7×5.2×+13%23.0%
Peer median$276.9B30.3×24.3×28.5×4.7×+16%17.5%

Investors who own it

Investors we follow who held SpaceX at the end of Jun 30, 2026, from their 13F filings.

More on SpaceX

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About

Chief executive
Elon Musk, since 2002FounderFounded SpaceX in 2002, also CTO and chair. Source
Industry
Aerospace & Defense
Sector
Industrials

Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .